Socialism has always appealed to the young, the cure for which isn’t age but responsibility. This usually comes in the form of taxes and children, both of which involve working and sacrificing for the benefit of others, the extent of which forms the axis upon which all politics turns. That Sanders never outgrew his own […]

Looking at the past six months, Sears was outperforming Wal-Mart until mid-December. (Graphic via CNN)

Last week 31 countries signed a new Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) agreement providing for country-by-country corporate information reporting and the automatic exchange of tax info between countries under the Multilateral Competent Authority Agreement (MCAA). Country-by-country reporting, the brainchild of noted tax reformer Richard Murphy,* is a principle that makes it possible to […]

Here is the graph from FRED for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Midpoint. (link) 1.15% for 2016. 2.45% for 2017. 3.20% for 2018. LOL… lots of luck. “The projections for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the […]

This post will build upon my previous post with the Cobra equation. In that post, I gave a model showing that the Fed is completely behind the curve of the business cycle. The Fed should not be raising rates at this point in the business cycle. When to Normalize in Theory In the model, aggregate […]

Tim Duy, who is a cool economist, points out a difference between the labor market and output GDP… Labor market improving while GDP is slowing. He describes this difference for the Fed. “Now they have slow GDP growth and fast employment growth. That will make brains explode on Constitution Ave.” Yet, Brains need not explode. […]

I have been saying for more than two years that the Fed should have raised the Fed rate earlier. Now it is too late because the economy is over the top of the business cycle… or as I would say, against the effective demand limit. They should have raised the Fed rate when effective demand […]

I’m not sure if AngryBear readers noticed, but Italy is suffering a slow motion banking crisis– we are so backward that we are getting to 2008 in 2016. This post is my attempt to translate and summarize this story in Italy’s leading paper La Repubblica and an angry blog post by Luca Fantuzzi update: in […]

January 17, 2016 Marcus Nunes posted on the views of a possible Recession The “Plunging Economy.” Marcus asks the Question; What to make of these trends? Do they justify the “recession mania” that is taking shape? The Fed believes otherwise about the possibility of recession and clings to the only thing not plunging.

by Marco Fioramanti and Robert Waldmann This is the final post on European Commission decomposition of unemployment into cyclical unemployment and the NAWRU (non accelerating wage inflation rate of unemployment). This calculation is important because cyclical unemployment is used to calculate the output gap and cyclically corrected budget deficits, which are used to calculated allowed […]