Who Voted to Leave and Who Voted to Stay – Updated
It is pretty clear who voted to stay and who voted to leave the EU in England.
Hat Tip to Sam Wang Princeton Election Consortium Brexit survey of the day. “The UK voters who dominated the vote to Leave are also the ones who have to live with the outcome for the least amount of time.” Another elite versus the commoners.
With a fear for snide comments on stats in return, reader voislav comments: “The analysis (Princeton Consortium)is a bit misleading because turnout also increased by age. Sky projects that the turnout for 18-24′s it was in the 30s and for 24-35′s in the 50′s, vs 80+% for the 55+ crowd. BBC shows lower turnout in younger areas of the country.
If you look at the Guardian analysis (link below) the correlation with age is not that strong, there is a much stronger correlation with education and income. Wealthier, more educated young people tend to be more politically engaged, so they dominated the youth vote.”
Scatter plots taken from EU referendum: full results and analysis “The Guardian.” These plots are interactive and you can locate different areas and city of the country making it worthwhile to visit The Guardian site.
Yes; wisdom vs educated young.
One could also do a chart of what percentage of their lives the cohorts have been living within the EU. One suspects that the older cohorts look back at the pre common market days of their youth with rosy coloured nostalgia glasses. OTOH to young eyes, a non-EU UK is unfamiliar and scary…
A quick look at UK apprenticeship starts show an obvious dip between 2004 and 2008 which corresponds closely to the peak rate of migration of Polish workers to the UK. This would be what I would expect if a large number of skilled workers reduced the demand for and availability of entry level positions. The number affected looks to be of the order of 200,000 to 300,000 or more. Although the number of starts seems to recover by 2010/2011, after the population of Polish immigrants levels off, the affect this could have had on the employment prospects of a large cohort of school leavers is substantial.
This may be a correlation which has a completely different explanation but is one I have not seen discussed anywhere. The undoubted benefits of skilled immigration to the UK economy would not be felt be those who thereby failed to get opportunities to work in a skilled trade.
I also would point out that the frequent disparagement of ‘lazy, incompetent’ local workers in comparison to the ‘hard working, industrious’ immigrants would rightly be rejected if applied in a colonial context. England (and Scotland and Wales) once produced manufactures of the highest quality. The people have not changed but the social context certainly has.
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In other words; if those who completed school can not work, they can not enjoy the benefits of the immigrants?
With age comes wisdom.
The analysis is a bit misleading because turnout also increased by age. Sky projects that the turnout for 18-24’s it was in the 30s and for 24-35’s in the 50’s, vs 80+% for the 55+ crowd. BBC shows lower turnout in younger areas of the country (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36616028)
If you look at the Guardian analysis (link below) the correlation with age is not that strong, there is a much stronger correlation with education and income. Wealthier, more educated young people tend to be more politically engaged, so they dominated the youth vote. Feel free to make snide comments about lies and statistics.
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You already have your answer.
The real fun is going to be when they don’t leave the Common Market and nothing changes essentially.
Without the common market, capitalism has no future in the UK. It would dissolve quite easily.
An interesting figure in there about what one company is offering as a salary to their European import coders in the UK. It honestly makes you wonder how the immigrants in question could survive on it in England.
The same thing is of course happening in the US without the benefit of an EU open borders policy, because we have such a high number of tech visas available.
To some degree, free trade is justified by saying that better paying high tech jobs are the ones that will become available as we outsource crummy textile and low end assembly work to other locations. Meanwhile we import knowledge workers at prices that cut the bottom out of the labor market, and even make it hard to justify putting money into an education in those fields beyond the community college electrical engineering level, because the foreign workers coming in don’t have $60k in undergrad loans that they need to include in their budgets.
Some hard choices on visa policy are going to need to be made if we continue to have education prices rising and the cost of living in high tech areas rising while the entry and midlevel salary in many places is being cannibalized by tech visas.
Of course, let’s say you reduce the number of visas or make it more expensive to get them, then you end up with offshoring of that low end development on a contract basis or to technology development centers run by multinationals that can afford to do such things.
Is it India’s fault that they are producing hundreds of thousands of entry level software engineers, accountants, and electrical engineers every year? Is it the fault of companies that they want to pay the least amount possible for labor while still keeping quality high? I have difficulty laying blame at the feet of either of those parties, but the ramifications are not great for American students.
Recently my new company is starting to dual-stream. We had been hiring only highly experienced people in our software and engineering groups, and now because of cost pressures and demographics, we are starting to hire more entry level US grads and at the same time we are expanding our use of overseas coders. The entry level grads are significantly easier to recruit and they’re an investment in our future as our experienced people prepare to retire. I don’t know if every company is responding to these trends in the same way though.