Is the secular economic season beginning to change (Part 2) – by New Deal democratThe selloff of a month ago may well be the harbinger of a fundamental change in the relationship between bond yields and stock prices, one that is likely to persist for the next 10 years or so, as part of a very […]
On Those Aluminum Tariffs The global price of aluminum fell below $1500 per metric ton by the end of 2015. By June 2017, it had risen to $1885 per metric ton. This source suggests that this price is even higher. So what happened yesterday?: The stock market dip reflects the enormous impact that a 25 percent tariff on imported steel […]
Great news on job security, but on income line workers can hold back on breaking out the champagne Some really good news this morning, but a note to hold your horses on the celebration of at least one aspect of that news. Initial jobless claims, which I’ve called the single most positive data point in […]
Begun the Trade War Has Master Yoda at the end of the second of the Star Wars prequels: Begun the clone war has Exactly the right sentiment with this news: President Donald Trump is expected to announce new tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum as soon as Thursday, a move that could trigger significant economic repercussions. […]
Twenty years ago, Paul Krugman warned that the liquidity trap was not just an issue in the economic history of the 30s. He noted there was every sign that Japan was in the liquidity trap in the 90s, then argued that a liquidity trap was theoretically possible. I guess one lesson is that economists even […]
China, not automation, is by far the biggest factor in the decline of prime age labor force participation Perhaps the biggest mystery in economic analysis in the last few years has been trying to find an explanation for the big decline in labor force participation since 1999. A recent NBER working paper by Abraham and Kearney has […]
Memo to younger readers: in an era of rising interest rates, deficits DO matter very much If you are under about 45 years of age, the odds are that you agree with one statement made by Dick Cheney: that “Reagan proved that deficits don’t matter.” As I mention from time to time, I am a […]
Initial jobless claims: the single most positive aspect of the entire economy I haven’t been bothering to comment on initial jobless claims reports lately, for the simple fact that every week it’s the same story: they’re good! In fact, the initial jobless claims reports are probably the single most positive aspect of the entire economic […]
by David Zetland (reposted from Aguanomics) What went wrong in Capetown? I asked that question of Mike Muller, who has been working on water issues there for decades. He referred me to this op/ed he wrote and — more important — the inadequate response from a local city councillor. [Tl;dr: Failure to invest against risk […]
No, Matt Yglesias, Trump is *not* “probably gonna be re-elected” While I generally agree with the political and social observations of Matt Yglesias and Ezra Klein, their takes that involve the economy frequently drive me crazy. So it was this morning when I encountered these two tweets from Yglesias: This is just incredibly shallow analysis and, […]