This is a follow up to The Standard Deviation of NGDP Growth During the Great Inflation. In that post I showed this 100 point scatter graph of the 12 Quarter average Compounded Annual Rate of Return [CARC] of NGDP vs 12 quarter Standard Deviation [Std Dev] of CARC from 1954 to 1978. It then occurred […]
Edward Lambert at Effective Demand; Effective Demand = Effective Labor Income/(cu*(1-u)) points to the result of an economy left to maximize Profits at the expense of Labor. I have my own version or underlying causes of this issue and Edward gives the economic side of it. I am going to show a graph of Productivity […]
Lifted from comments from reader Juan: Where Did the Risk Go? How Misapplied Bond Ratings Cause Mortgage Backed Securities and Collateralized Debt Obligation Market Disruptions Joseph R. Mason. Louisiana State University – Ourso School of Business; University of Pennsylvania – Wharton Financial Institutions Center and Josh Rosner, Graham Fisher & Co. May 3, 2007 […]
This post is a side bar to the Remarkably Stable GDP Growth series Part 1 Part2 Part 3 Once again I have to thank Mark Sadowski for goading me into digging deeper, staring longer, and thinking harder about this topic than I otherwise would have. In comments to Part 3, Mark informs us that: In […]
Or: Why Banks Aren’t Like People Steve Keen does a good job of addressing Paul Krugman’s befuddlement with Richard Koo’s balance-sheet-based thinking, here, with detailed models showing how funds flow and stocks change over time. I’d like to address it more succinctly and I hope intuitively, by pointing out a simple misunderstanding that Paul shares […]
Lifted from comments by reader Juan comes this article from the Finacial Times: Subprime securities – still being downgraded Some two weeks ago Moody’s announced it was downgrading 28 tranches of various bonds (as well as upgrading two tranches, and confirming others) in an action that covered roughly $1.2bn worth of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). … […]
In his Defending the One Percent paper, Greg Mankiw is rather grudgingly acknowledging rent-seeking (and -getting) in the financial industry, and the allocation of top talent to that industry. He sez: The last thing we need is for the next Steve Jobs to forgo Silicon Valley in order to join the high-frequency traders on Wall Street. […]
As I discussed last week, U.S. median wealth per adult is lower than many other countries. To be exact, it comes in at #27 for 2012, at $38,786 per adult. This is more than 1/4 lower than had been reported by Credit Suisse’s Global Wealth Databook for 2011. I contacted one of the authors, Professor […]
Via Mark Thoma Economist’s View comes this note on credit rating company incentives: While the US Department of Justice did not give any statistical evidence in its deposition, our new research (Efing and Hau 2013) suggests that rating favors were indeed systematic and pervasive in the industry. In a sample of more than 6,500 structured […]
Political Calculations gives us this chart of median new home prices versus median incomes over the last 46 years. The rising tip at the upper right (!) is May 2013. What do you think: sustainable? Here’s the zoomed-in version of recent years, from inside the red dashes: As they say, …new homes are, virtually by definition, at the […]