By Steve Roth (originally published at Evonomics) Four Definitions of Money. All Correct Money makes the world go round. That may well be true, but money certainly makes the economics world go round. It’s the discipline’s special purview, the numeric linchpin that gives economics its dominant role and voice in our affairs. It’s what makes economics seem […]
Mortgage rates probably have to top 5% to tip housing into a recession-leading downturn I’ve pointed out many times that, generally speaking, mortgage rates lead home sales. It’s not the only thing — demographics certainly plays an important role — but over the long term interest rates have been very important. I have run the […]
Mush versus Mush on Climate Change The very long New York Times piece on climate change politics in the 1980s by Nathaniel Rich has attracted a lot of critical commentary—justifiably. To say that the failure to achieve a political response was due to human nature, a genetic defect that prevents our species from planning ahead, is just […]
How to stay awake for economics!
When the second quarter real GDP report was published I saw that trade made a major contribution to growth — exports contributed 1.12 percentage points of the 4.1% real GDP growth. But that seemed like some sort of fluke produced by unusual conditions rather that what trend growth would generate. Moreover, the BEA estimate was […]
Click this link. Data For Progress decided to ask people about policy proposals which very serious centrists consider way too far left for America. American voters respond differently. As should already be clear from existing polls (click and search for “fair”), there is strong support for egalitarian populist redistributive public policy. At Data For Progress, […]
(Dan here…I thought I should pass this along for NDd) by New Deal democrat Midyear update: long leading forecast through H1 2019 at Seeking Alpha My midyear update of the 8 long leading indicators, taking the forecast all the way through the middle of next year, is up at Seeking Alpha.Not only is it informative, but […]
Is The World’s Largest Planned IPO Kaput? That would the long planned and widely advertised IPO to sell 5% Saudi-government-owned ARAMCO, estimated at being worth US $2 trillion, making the planned IPO being at about $100 billion, well ahead of any that has happened in the past, the largest being $25 billion by AliBaba. This […]
Germany Organizing Anti-Trump Coalition Mark Thoma th other day links to a story in Der Spiegel about a visit to Japan by new German Foreign Minister, Heike Maas. He met with PM Shinzo Abe, and apparently the two of them agreed on the need for creating a network of like-minded nations that wish to maintain […]
The Soybean Boom Via TalkingPointsMemo AP notes: Private forecasters cautioned that the April-June pace is unsustainable because, they say, it stems from temporary factors, including a rush by exporters of soybeans and other products to get their shipments out before retaliatory tariffs took effect. They predicted the rest of the year is likely to see solid, but […]