The yield curve is already signaling a slowdown Throughout this expansion, I have had a sneaking suspicion that the yield curve (the difference in interest rates between short and long term bonds) would be the indicator most likely to fail. Originally that was because we are in a very non-inflationary period similar to that which […]
(Dan here…more to come) by Joseph Joyce On the Road to…China I have just returned from the 4th HenU / INFER Workshop on Applied Macroeconomics in Kaifeng, China, which was organized by Makram El-Shaghi and Zhang Lin. There were many interesting presentations that are listed in the program.
For a Fiscal Neutrality Amendment Against the dogmatic ignorance of a proposed amendment to the US constitution mandating a balanced budget, I propose an alternative, a fiscal neutrality amendment: “No unit of government within the United States may establish voting or other decision procedures that embody a bias in favor of either higher or lower […]
The Mezzogiorno Problem Revisited I have recently returned from participating in a conference in Naples, Italy on “The Economy as a Complex Spatial System” where there many papers and much discussion about the longstanding poverty problem in southern Italy, long labeled “the Mezzogiorno problem.” Mezzogiorno literally means midday or noon, but has long been applied […]
(Dan here….lifted from comments, lightly edited for readability) by Dale Coberly I’ll offer my own answer to the question. (of Morality in Capitalism post here) “Capitalism” offers itself as the answer to morality. always in some version of the Ayn Randian “life is time and time is money so taxes are not only theft, they […]
I almost always agree with Kevin Drum who is, among other things, a brilliant economist even thoug (or largely because) he didn’t study economics much in college. But I don’t entirely agree with his one minute explanation of the importance of the yield curve for macroeconomic forecasting. the ever-fascinating yield curve, which tracks the difference […]
by Peter Turchin What Is the Role of Morality in a Capitalist Economy? published at Evonomics is worth a visit…it is academic but can offer material for discussion, involving several economists. I am not going to try to summarize.
Gimme shelter update: housing purchase affordability Let’s update one measure of housing prices: comparing of the purchasing power of buyers vs. the price a typical house. There are at least 3 indexes. First, here is the N.A.R.’s “Housing affordability index,” updated through May. This compares their estimate of median household income vs. the median price […]
Further comments about the state of the housing market Here are some additional salient comments about the housing market right now. 1. Existing home sales are completely stagnant Not only did existing home sales fall for the month, not only are they down slightly YoY, but they are now less than 2% higher than where […]
Preponderance of evidence from poor housing permits points to slowdown in GDP The preponderance of evidence, based on this morning’s report on housing permits and starts, is that increased interest rates and continuing increased prices are beginning to take a bite out of the market. First of all, let’s take a look at single family […]