Good payroll reports will probably coninue until next spring One of my continuing mantras over the years has been that spending leads hiring. It is simply demonstrable fact that, going back over 50 years, upward or downward changes in trend in consumer spending as revealed by retail sales, happen before similar changes in trend by […]
Mark Thoma had this up on Facebook. and pulled this from Tim Taylor’s Conversable Economist. It is an interesting read. “Fifty years ago in 1968, Milton Friedman’s Presidential Address to the American Economic Association set the stage for battles in macroeconomics that have continued ever since. The legacy of the talk has been important enough […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for November 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators piece is up at Seeking Alpha. If my reference frames are well- constructed, economic trends ought to start out in the long leading forecast, then start to show up in the short leading forecast, and finally make it through […]
MbS Guilty! According to the top stories in both the New York Times and Washington Post this morning, somebody in the CIA has leaked that Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) ordered the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Of course no sensible observer is remotely surprised, but the Trump administration had been working mightily to deny this […]
by New Deal democrat Credit remains loose, but big borrowers aren’t interested; real consumer spending may be stalling We interrupt this coverage of the ongoing Trump Boom (c) to advise you that two more long leading indicators, while still positive, are showing at least some weaknesses. This story is up at Seeking Alpha. As usual, reading […]
Real wages unchanged, real money supply increases in October With October consumer price inflation reported, let’s update a few metrics. First of all, while the YoY% growth in real wages increased: real wages were unchanged month over month, as both nominal wages and consumer inflation both increased by +0.3%:
Initial markers for a manufacturing slowdown now hit I have a new article that hopefully will get posted by Seeking Alpha later today. In the meantime … Two weeks ago I wrote an article establishing a manufacturing baseline for my forecast of an economic slowdown by about the middle of next year. I concluded that by saying: […]
Changes in labor bargaining power take up to a decade to be fully effective Sorry for the recent lack of posting on economic matters. Partly it is ennui, and partly it is a near total dearth of data in between the employment report a week ago Friday and tomorrow’s CPI report. Even a couple of […]
Is It Not The Economy, Stupid? On many Mondays I indulge in taking Robert J. Samuelson to task after his regular Washington Post column of the day. Today he was almost right, or if you prefer, even mostly right. This one was titled “It’s Not the Economy, Stupid” about the outcome of the midterm election, […]
The Death of Shame In any society not in a state of civil war, shame is a powerful force, perhaps the most powerful. Individuals or organizations caught cheating, lying or otherwise doing evil, when exposed and called out, are expected to be embarrassed. They should repent their sins and promise to make amends. Other than […]