Trump Says Dems Support Venezuelan “High Taxes And Open Borders” The average tax rate in Venezuela is 25%. The average tax rate in the US is 26%. Sorry, Trump, this is yet another lie by Trump, but what else is new on this? I do not know the details of Venezuelan of immigration policies, but […]
Three weeks ago, in response to the IPCC report warning that CO2 emissions had to be reduced to 45% of their 2010 levels by 2030 to avoid the possibility of global temperature rising above 1.5°C, I posted “The IPCC 1.5° C Report and the Ten-Hour Week,” (also posted at Angry Bear) which offered the sketch of […]
Some good news on workers’ wages There was some good news the other morning about workers wages. The quarterly employment cost index showed a q/q increase of +0.9% for wages (red in the graph below), and +0.8% for overall compensations (blue) (which includes things like medical benefits). Nominal YoY increases were +3.0% and 2.8%, respectively: […]
by Joseph Joyce The 2018 Globie: “Crashed” Each year I choose a book to be the Globalization Book of the Year, i.e., the “Globie”. The prize is strictly honorific and does not come with a check. But I do like to single out books that are particularly insightful about some aspect of globalization. Previous winners are […]
by New Deal democrat Housing has peaked* *(unless the Fed lowers interest rates)My comprehensive look at September housing data is up at Seeking Alpha. The downtrend in housing statistics has been sustained and severe enough for me to make the call that housing has peaked, by most measures, between last November and this past March. This […]
I made a mistake. And it’s a good thing. Following up on my Running on Empty post, I wanted to give a more finely-grained analysis of climate costs relative to GDP growth, so I returned to my sources to see who their sources were and how they did their calculations. Watson et al., compiled their […]
The Housing Affordability Crisis This morning both the Case-Shiller House Price Indexes for September, and Third Quarter Median Asking Rent were reported, as was the rental vacancy rate. Together they reveal that all types of shelter costs, whether housing or apartments, are at or near record levels. The Case Shiller 20 City index was reported […]
A little over a year ago, Robert Watson, former chair of the IPCC, and two co-authors published a report titled “The Economic Case for Climate Action in the United States.” Based on trends over the past few decades, the authors estimated the current total annual cost in the U.S. of losses from weather events intensified […]
Setting a baseline for a manufacturing slowdown If I am right that by roughly midyear 2019 the economy will experience a substantial slowdown, then we ought to start seeing a deceleration in the leading indicators for manufacturing soon. Additionally, if rail transportation is accurately signaling that a slowdown is already hitting due to the impact […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for October 22 – 26 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Weakness, which had been confined to the long leading indicators, is now showing up in some of the short leading indicators as well. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs look like they are taking an immediate […]