For once Trump is right to claim that he has set a new record as the federal deficit is now over 10% of GDP. It is now 10.7% of GDP as compared to the prior record of 10.2% that Obama inherited from Bush. The deficit is looking more and more like what happened in Japan. […]
And we as Democrats did not resist hard enough and gave in to the Republican message. It wasn’t the lack of turnout by black Americans causing Trump to be elected. It was not the failure to vote as the numbers of voters exceeded that of the 2012 election. It was the minority of voters who […]
June data starts out with a bright spot in manufacturing Earlier this week the last of the regional Fed Districts, Dallas, reported their manufacturing indexes for June. The overall picture has been a strong rebound: Regional Fed New Orders Indexes (*indicates report this week) Empire State up +41.8 to -0.6 Philly up +42.4 to +16.7 Richmond up +30 […]
Wildly Off Forecasts? The macroeconomic forecasting business has become quite unhinged in the current situation, with existing models seeming to have their wheels coming off as old relationships simply do not hold and reported data seems unreliable and going in all sorts of directions. We have already seen this happen regarding forecasts that were made […]
Kind of a big deal because Oklahomans rejected Trump’s Medicaid and Republican block grant-program which would be more vulnerable to cuts of Federal funding. It is unfortunate Oklahoma did not get on board with the ACA Medicaid expansion as 100% of the costs of the Medicaid expansion from 2014 – 2016 and 90% there after. […]
Coronavirus dashboard for June 29: renewed exponential growth in infections, decline in deaths has stalled Total US infections: 2,549,069, 42,161 in last day Total US deaths: 125,803, 273 in last day Here is the regional breakdown of the 7 day average of new cases per capita: There is renewed exponential growth in the South and […]
(Dan here…David offers a different sort of presentation from the normal for AB. Interesting?…) Ask me anything — vacation edition I’m going on vacation for a few weeks, so I am interrupting my normal blogging for something different. (I’m not sure if you — or anyone — is interested in my Marshall 2020 Project posts, but […]
Coronavirus dashboard for June 27: infections -> hospitalizations -> deaths Total US infections: 2,480,786, 44,373 new cases Total US deaths: 125,120, 619 new deathsA quandary over the past month has been why deaths declined so much more than new cases, while cases were declining; and more recently why deaths have continued to decline in the […]
Via the Boston Globe comes the consideration of boundary problems this pandemic poses between US states. Worth a discussion. Also, on the world stage, the EU and other countries consider relaxing travel restrictions from ‘safe’ countries, the US not among them. Visitor quarantines may seem like a smart intervention to keep the virus from crossing […]
All 4 coincident indicators of recession improved in May vs. April With this morning’s release of personal income and spending, we now have all 4 coincident indicators for May that the NBER uses to determine whether the economy is in a recession or recovery/expansion. And all 4 improved from their “most horrible” readings in April. […]