As a recovery gets underway after a recession, wouldn’t it be nice to have an equation that would forecast the peak of the profit rate cycle? Well, below is one. Profits are a function of labor share. If labor share rises, the profit rate will decline. Profits are also a function of optimizing the utilization […]
An open letter to John Cochrane and Jennifer Rubin Dear John Cochrane and Jennifer Rubin, I read with interest your column, Jennifer, which led me to your chapter, John, in Blueprint for America on trade and immigration. I have studied the history of the lump-of-labor fallacy claim for nearly 20 years and have have published several […]
[New British Prime Minister Theresa] May — who campaigned for “remain” in last month’s E.U. referendum — had vowed to unify her bitterly divided party by appointing “leave” and “remain” advocates alike to top posts. She has made good on that pledge. But she also chosen to banish Gove and others who had been critical […]
Here is a video from a market analyst on youtube.com. They basically view the market having already peaked and eventually will come down. So they give their views on why stocks are hitting highs and why things look so optimistic at the moment. You will also see in the the video how the profit cycle […]
Paul Krugman interpreted the recent decline of 10 year safe interest rates from extremely low to astonishingly low as a capitulation to stagnation. He argued (convincingly) that investors have decided that short term safe interest rates will remain extremely low for a long time (evidently at least 10 years) and that the post 2008 pattern […]
As always, I seek an economic issue on which I disagree with Paul Krugman. I think I might only partially agree with his recent tweet storm. I certainly think that Twitter is not the best medium for discussion of economic theory. update: The man can be irritating. His op-ed (too short but better than a […]
Net profit rates are an important driver in the business cycle. Net profit rate = corporate profit rate – Fed rate According to the equation, the basic cost of money should be less than the profit return on money. The key is to have a positive, stable and moderate net profit rate. So if the […]
It has been said, “a picture is worth a thousand words.” Forms of this phraseology can be traced back to 1911 with newspaper editor Tess Flanders discussing journalism and publicity. A Piqua, Ohio company (“Piqua Auto Supply House”) also used a form of it in an advertisement. I consulted in Piqua in the eighties. A […]
The data in this post was updated from errors. Correct data below. As net profit rates rise in the aggregate, pressures for firms to raise prices to cover opportunity costs of capital decrease. So why is inflation in Japan so low? Have net profit rates increased there since the 1980’s? Let’s take a quick look. […]
Here is the video of Senator Warren at the New America’s open market’s program event. There are other videos from the event at this link. Streaming Video Services