TradeSnoop says Cycle has Turned
Here is a video from a market analyst on youtube.com. They basically view the market having already peaked and eventually will come down. So they give their views on why stocks are hitting highs and why things look so optimistic at the moment. You will also see in the the video how the profit cycle has turned.
They really don’t give many views. Expansions are very choppy nowadays. Pieces move through credit mechanism at different rates. Basically we see that in the last 2 expansions(and the warning signs in the 80’s) rather than in sync like in the past. The cycle on profits actually turned in 2012.
EL – Do you really get your insights from this guy? He is a day trader. Even worse, he is a day trader who is openly pushing for short trades in stocks.
EL – Have you ever day traded stocks? Have you ever, in your life, day traded stocks from the short side?
This guy is a tout. He gets his talking points from articles published at Zero Hedge. If this is what you look to as support for your thoughts on macro economics then it explains how you come up with such odd, misguided stuff.
I would not advertise that you think so much of this guy. It just makes you look silly.
I do not day trade. I only posted the video to present information to the readers. There are some things that I agree with, and some things I don’t.
But I do agree with his views on the profit cycle having turned. You read more about that in other sources too.
I see a double top has formed (warning sign that stocks have peaked) and that the bottom will fall out once HRC is indicted for lying to the congressional investigators. Or if there is more foul play that can put in another “fix” to keep her in the election then the market will temporarily continue to hit new false highs . Also if Trump wins the election then the bottom will fall out shortly there after as the elites will take their money and run.
As a long time investor of my 401K money –which is now in an IRA–and a bit of other funds, the only cycle that makes a difference is whether fear or greed is predominant. Fundamentals, global and domestic growth, profits, unemployment, p/e ratios, option activities, values of competing investments, interest rates etc can affect the fear and greed that permeates the market, but nobody gets it right more than half the time.
You make an essential point. How do you judge the fear and greed? Do they have a cycle that can be seen?
El – On the changing profit dynamics you say, “You read more about that in other sources too.”
Really? “other sources”. You make it seem as if this is some big secret that you, Tradesnoop and some ‘others’ have figured out.
Google “declining profits for corporate america” – You get 94,000,000 hits. Every Bank, finance company, Wall Street broker, every newspaper in the country and most of them abroad have stories on this topic. This secret you think you have stumbled onto is very much in the public eye. The story is now at least three years old.
I’ll just point out that the S&P 500 bottoms-up estimate of first and second quarter EPS still has the year over year change in the four quarter moving average showing negative growth rates,