This graph shows yoy %change for the U-3 and U-6 rates for unemployment. (link) They are on a normal trend of a business cycle where they bottom out and then head upwards. When the trend starts to go positive, a recession is imminent. The trend is just now hitting 0% which in the last two […]
by New Deal democrat The 2016 election economy: the “Bread and Peace” model final forecast One of the election forecasts I have referred to frequently for the last year is the “Bread and Peace” model by Professor Douglas Hibbs. Hibbs himself has not published any forecasts for this election, but the result forecast by his […]
by Mike Kimel The Top 10 Performing Immigrant Groups in the US – Lessons Learned First, I’d like to apologize. An earlier version of this post was taken down because I sent it with the wrong table. This version has the correct table, and I added a bit of verbage as well. In my last […]
Here are some vague thoughts on the state of academic macroeconomic research and how it might be improved*. The current mainstream macroeconmic research program has recently been severely criticized by so many extremely emminent econonmists, that it is hard to consider it the main stream. However, the many efforts to present an alternative approach (including […]
Authored by Mike Kimel In this post, I will explain the annualized growth rate in real GDP per capita using tax rates and the percentage of the population that is foreign born using data for the United States. The data shows the following: A. the tax rate that maximizes economic growth is higher than you […]
CLEVELAND — Hillary Clinton entered the final phase of her campaign on Friday, working to ensure a victory that is decisive enough to earn a mandate for her presidency and a surge of voters to help Democrats win congressional races. Emerging from a nine-day absence from the trail, Mrs. Clinton seized on the momentum of […]
by New Deal democrat Watching aggregate sales and payrolls Way back in the depths of the Great Recession in 2009, I used to hear a lot of comments like, “How can people buy anything, when they don’t have jobs?!?” But the truth is, as I pointed out at the time, that sales lead jobs. This […]
After the first debate, there was some criticism of Clinton that she came off as “too prepared”—a semantic contrast to Trump’s lack of preparation—and then criticism of the criticism: How can someone be too prepared for something? The answer to that question is that what was really meant by “too prepared” was “too programmed.” That […]
by New Deal democrat The darkening skies In my Weekly Indicators column on Saturday, I noted that the data had gotten a little darker. Since I have been increasingly concerned about the direction of the economy over the next year or two, I thought I would spell out where my worry is coming from.. Let […]
Janet Yellen gave a speech where she posed 4 questions to economists in general seeking answers… The first question she asked was this… “The Influence of Demand on Aggregate Supply The first question I would like to pose concerns the distinction between aggregate supply and aggregate demand: Are there circumstances in which changes in aggregate […]