He wanted generals like Hitler’s, a leader he sometimes praised. “Do you really believe you’re not loyal to me?” Trump asked then–chief of staff General John Kelly. Kelly was clear: “I’m certainly part of the administration, but my ultimate loyalty is to the rule of law.” October 22, 2024 – by Prof. Heather Cox Richardson […]

 – by New Deal democrat In the past number of months, I have been looking for a rebalancing of new vs. existing home sales. The sharp increase in mortgage rates beginning in 2022 locked many existing homeowners into their houses, since they could not afford the concomitant increase in mortgage payments that would accrue from […]

Getting the vote out has been a big factor in voting. Much of voting today is done via mail. The U.S. Postal Services plays a large role in making sure votes are delivered on time. The graph below is from the September 30, 2024 review of the USPS performance resulting from the America Plan. A […]

When I was growing up, I viewed being a physician as the zenith of achievement for someone interested in science. That changed when I got to college and became interested in research. I realized I didn’t have the temperament for a physician (OK, maybe a radiologist or a pathologist) and I became a lab rat. […]

Results taken from Company Reports: “GM Releases 2024 First-Quarter Results and Raises Full-Year Guidance,” General Motors Company GM Story Reported by William Gavin at Quartz: beats Wall Street’s expectations again for third-quarter earnings and raised its outlook for the full year GM is having a great year as it posts Q3 earnings beat General Motors […]

– by New Deal democrat One of the well-established long leading indicators is corporate profits. Typically they peak a year or more before the onset of a recession. And the reason makes sense: if there is profit pressure that lasts longer than a single quarter, i.e., it looks like it may be forming a trend, […]

Recent WSJ subscription article on China and it trying to reverse its one-child per couple policy. Evidently the policy is leaving the country with a growing elderly population with no younger replacements to follow. It will now implement subsidies to encourage larger families to reverse the demographic decline of its own design. The Communist Party […]

– by New Deal democrat This week is another light one for economic data, so let me discuss a couple of points explaining why I am cautious, but not DOOOMing. Basically, because there are a lot of asterisks. Today let me follow up on initial jobless claims. The typical best way to look at these is […]

– by Bill McBride Calculated Risk Newsletter NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to September 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available). This is the third look at several early reporting local markets in September. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets […]

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. As per the analysis of monthly data that I wrote about this week, hurricane season continued to complicate the high frequency data as well. With that very big caveat, the underlying tone remained positive. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring […]