Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for October 21 – 25

– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Ever since – and in response to – the really good jobs report early this month, interest rate yields on bonds have crept back up, giving back most of their summer gains. That puts some pressure on the long leading indicators. Also […]

The Administrative state

The plutocrats on the right want to dismantle the administrative state, so they say. Of course, their wealth derives directly from the fiction of private property and an administrative state is required to enforce that fiction. Their wealth is monetized in currency, which is another fiction that the administrative state holds a monopoly on. The […]

Taxes, Postage, and Medicare Updates

Initiative and Program Updates that have come into being in 2024 and also 2025 under the Biden Administration impacting Elderly Economics. The reporting is by AARP. Some of those who have passed into history that caught my eye too. Federal Income Tax Brackets for 2025 In the U.S. tax system, income tax rates are graduated, […]

Why has the inverted yield curve failed? A fundamentals-based explanation

– by New Deal democrat Prof. Menzie Chinn at Econbrowser, like me, is an Old School blogger, and like me, is focused on forecasting.  Yesterday he wrote a piece about supplementing the yield curve with a second condition, the private nonfinancial debt service ratio. Basically, what percent of income is needed to service debt. Doing […]

Rebalancing of the housing market, new home sales edition: sales increase, prices firm

– by New Deal democrat Yesterday we got the existing home sales portion of the rebalancing of the housing market, showing sales down further, and price growth attenuation. This morning, we got the new home slice, which was a virtual mirror image. As per usual, while new home sales are only about 10% of the […]

Economic Stimulus Over the Last Four Years and the Results of It

Yep! I think the people are correct though about the inflationary actions of Biden during the PANDEMIC when the nation shut down and people were not working. The administration should not have doled out money in multiple Economic Stimulus packages during the pandemic. All those deficit spending and inflation . . . oh my! We […]

Economic stress in higher education

You might think universities would be immune to the financial pressures of the non-academic marketplace. You would be wrong. Brandeis University is struggling financially, and recently fired their resident string quartet, the Lydian String Quartet* after 40 years, to save $275,000. Other universities that, unlike Brandeis, have medical schools, are also struggling with their budgets. […]

“I want Americans and families to be able to not just get by, but be able to get ahead.”

And quite frankly, Trump is not interested in Americans and Families unless they are a part of the 1-percenters in Income. To be in the top 1% of earners, you’re looking at an average annual income of $819,324. The top 0.1% of Americans earn an average of $3,312,693. These are same people who benefit the […]

Weekly jobless claims return to near normal

– by New Deal democrat After two weeks of being highly elevated YoY, initial claims returned to a more “normal” range this week, as except for Florida, hurricane disruptions largely disappeared. For the week initial claims declined -15,000 to 227,000. The four week moving average increased 2,000 to 238,500. With the typical one week delay, […]

The economics of Trump II

Trump is promising lots of tariffs if he’s elected. Make no mistake: American consumers pay tariffs, not the exporting country. US consumers will be hit by (a) increased cost of imported goods, and (b) increased cost of domestic goods, as domestic producers raise prices to match imports. Econ 101. Trump is promising to lift taxes […]