Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

NY Fed: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

NY Fed: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low; Calculated Risk Newsletter The NY Fed released the Q3 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit this morning. Here are three charts from the report. The first graph shows mortgage originations by credit score (this includes both purchase and refinance). Look at the difference in credit […]

October consumer Inflation firms, driven – as usual – by Shelter

 – by New Deal democrat Today’s CPI report for October generally showed stable monthly increases, but slight increases in YoY comparisons. But as usual, it was almost all about the usual culprit of shelter, as more fully parsed below; to wit:  – Headline CPI increased 0.2% for the month, the fourth month in a row […]

Incomes, immigration, and the election

Tuesday, November 12, 2024  – by New Deal democrat On Friday I wrote about how the Fed likely contributed, via hurting aspiring homeowners, to the outcome of the Election last week. Today I want to take a look at another issue – wages. As it happens, while I was writing this Paul Krugman put up […]

The economics of deportation

The Trump administration is threatening to deport >10 million people. These are people who, regardless of their immigration status, are contributing to the economy and jobs by purchasing goods and service (“job creators”) and contributing to social programs like Social Security and Medicare. Indeed, if they are undocumented, they will never see benefits to the […]

Watch Months-of-Supply! Housing

Watch Months-of-Supply! by Bill McBride Calculated Risk Both inventory and sales are well below pre-pandemic levels, and I think we need to keep an eye on months-of-supply to forecast price changes. Historically nominal prices declined when months-of-supply approached 6 months – and that is unlikely any time soon – however, as expected, months-of-supply is above 2019 […]

The New Economy and the Tariffs and Tax Breaks to Launch It

Since we have a new president who favors Tariffs, we should start talking about how those Tariffs will impact the US Economy and Citizens. The Tax Foundation offers up a brief explanation which should be readily understandable for Angry Bear readers. If Trump is able to pull this off and get it out of Congress, […]

United States’ Fiscal Policy in a Global Context

A comparison of US Fiscal Deficit prompted me to post this at Angry Bear. I believe it will be interesting to see how Trumps fiscal policies playout over the next four years. Check out The Guardian’s Economics Editor’s commentary on Trumps economic plans. The Issue: With continued high fiscal deficits likely for the foreseeable future, […]