Technically a good report. Not what they were expecting. The economy is still strong at the end of 2024. The third estimate of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2024 shows the economy grew at a 3.1% annual rate, which is higher than the 2.8% forecasted. 

Factors contributing to the growth: The increase in GDP was primarily due to increases in consumer spending, exports, business investment, and federal government spending.

Factors offsetting the growth: The increase in GDP was partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment.

A Comparison to previous quarters: The 3.1% growth in the third quarter is higher than the 2.8% that was previously estimated, but lower than the 3.0% growth in the second quarter. 

Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Third Quarter 2024

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024 (table 1), according to the “third” estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.8 percent. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up (refer to “Updates to GDP”).

The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and federal government spending. Imports increased (table 2).

Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected accelerations in exports, consumer spending, and federal government spending. These movements were partly offset by a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. Imports accelerated.

Current dollar GDP increased 5.0 percent at an annual rate, or $358.2 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $29.37 trillion, an upward revision of $20.6 billion from the previous estimate (tables 1 and 3). More information on the source data that underlie the estimates is available in the “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file on BEA’s website.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.9 percent in the third quarter, the same as the previous estimate (table 4). The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 1.5 percent, also the same as previously estimated. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.2 percent, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point.

Personal Income

Current-dollar personal income increased $191.7 billion in the third quarter, an upward revision of $15.8 billion from the previous estimate. The increase primarily reflected increases in compensation and personal current transfer receipts (table 8).

Disposable personal income increased $141.5 billion, or 2.7 percent, in the third quarter, an upward revision of $18.6 billion from the previous estimate. Real disposable personal income increased 1.1 percent, an upward revision of 0.3 percentage point.

Personal saving was $936.6 billion in the third quarter, an upward revision of $2.1 billion from the previous estimate. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.3 percent in the third quarter, the same as the previous estimate.

Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.1 percent in the third quarter, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.6 percent in the third quarter, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate (table 1).

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $15.0 billion in the third quarter, a downward revision of $4.9 billion from the previous estimate (table 10).

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $3.0 billion in the third quarter, an upward revision of $5.6 billion from the previous estimate. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $24.9 billion, a downward revision of $5.9 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $42.9 billion, a downward revision of $4.6 billion. Receipts decreased $61.5 billion, and payments decreased $18.7 billion.

Updates to GDP

With the third estimate, upward revisions to exports and consumer spending were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. Imports were revised up. For more information, refer to the Technical Note. For information on updates to GDP, refer to the “Additional Information” section that follows.

Real GDP by Industry

Today’s release includes estimates of GDP by industry, or value added—a measure of an industry’s contribution to GDP. Private goods-producing industries increased 1.5 percent, private services-producing industries increased 3.6 percent, and government increased 2.1 percent (table 12). Overall, 16 of 22 industry groups contributed to the third-quarter increase in real GDP.

• Within private goods-producing industries, the leading contributors to the increase were durable goods manufacturing (led by other transportation equipment) and nondurable goods manufacturing (led by chemical products) (table 13).
• Within private services-producing industries, the leading contributors to the increase were retail trade (led by motor vehicles and parts dealers); health care and social assistance (led by ambulatory health care services); and information (led by data processing, internet publishing, and other information services).
• The increase in government was led by an increase in state and local government.

Gross Output by Industry

Real gross output—principally a measure of an industry’s sales or receipts, which includes sales to final users in the economy (GDP) and sales to other industries (intermediate inputs)—increased 3.2 percent in the third quarter. Private goods-producing industries increased 0.6 percent, private services-producing industries increased 4.0 percent, and government increased 3.5 percent (table 16). Overall, 17 out of 22 industry groups contributed to the increase in real gross output.

Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Third Quarter 2024 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)