Jobless claims: neutral – with an extra grain of salt – by New Deal democrat As I cautioned last weekend in my “Weekly Indicators” update, we have entered that period of the year where Holiday seasonality means take everything with at least a little grain of salt. For example, this year Thanksgiving was almost one […]
The population is on a path to shrink and the majority of the population will be elderly in some fashion or another shortly. US productivity is based on inputs from Labor without which there could be declines in such without younger Labor. The nation populated in the past is not on a path of replacement […]
Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac are the nicknames for two mortgage giants that back about 70% of U.S. mortgages and have been under government conservatorship since the 2008 financial crisis. “Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac don’t issue mortgages directly. They purchase loans from lenders and package them into securities sold to investors. This process ensures […]
ISM non-manufacturing shows that services continue to power the economy forward. Are they inflationary? – by New Deal democrat Because services are roughly 3/4’s of the economy, I now pay a lot of attention to the economically weighted average of the ISM manufacturing and services indexes. Since the accession of China to normal trading status […]
A well constructed government, at a minimum, provides its citizens FDR’s four freedoms: A good well constructed government would want what is best for the society or nation as a whole; understand that a healthy, well fed, well housed, well educated society or nation with a stable quality government is best. A well constructed, healthy […]
– by New Deal democrat The JOLTS survey parses the jobs market on a monthly basis more thoroughly than the headline employment numbers in the jobs report. It also is a slight leading indicators for both initial jobless claims and unemployment; and for forecasting wage growth as well. Like many other statistics concerning jobs, the […]
The question being asked by the Economist Claudia Sahm “Why is Growth So Good . . . “ I did not add the YouTube of Economist Claudia Sahm. You will have to catch it on her site for which some of her commentaries can be read and presented elsewhere, . , , hence it is […]
A brief coming out of China reporting as to what they see as to their issues in growing their international trade. It is a different perspective in what they see as compared to what we see. When I was overseas for weeks at a time, I would pick up a local paper to get those […]
Strong demand because people had money to spend when they would have had nothing if the ARP was not put into play. By the same token, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was targeting the upper 1% of the taxpayers with the next 4% tagging along. It in itself was ~$2 trillion much of which […]
– by New Deal democrat As usual, the month’s data begins with the ISM manufacturing index, and with a one month delay, construction spending. Because manufacturing is of diminishing importance to the economy, and was in deep contraction both in 2015-16 and again in 2022 without any recession occurring, I now use an economically weighted three […]