This particular piece (or partial) is taken from an article written in 2015. You can pick up the entire piece at “KelloggInsight.” It is an abbreviated version of the article detailing what took place in 2008. Our economy was on the verge of collapse. Goldman Sachs made a collateral call on AIG. The results of […]

Brief commentary as taken from Tax Fairness. Good Stats and comparisons. And brief in making its point on immigrants as compared to corporations and income taxes. “How Undocumented Immigrants Contribute to Our Economy & Pay Higher Tax Rates Than Many Major Corporations,” Americans For Tax Fairness In 2022 America’s 10.9 million undocumented immigrants paid $96.7 billion […]

Weekly Indicators for March 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The most important news in high frequency data was that we now have 4 of 5 reports from regional Feds for March, and all four showed a decline from last month, and 3 […]

Long leading indicators update: corporate profits in Q4 2024  – by New Deal democrat Corporate profits are a long leading indicator, as they typically turn down at least one year before the onset of a recession. Unfortunately, they are typically reported with a lag, and Q4 corporate profits aren’t reported officially until the final update […]

I get that Trump is too stupid to understand that his tariffs (a) will be paid by American consumers, (b) will drive inflation and (c) will prevent future Fed rate cuts. But there are other negative consequences: “While Wall Street frets about potential volatility from President Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” plans, another part of […]

When I was a graduate student, it wasn’t unusual to do a postdoc in the UK or in Europe. If you wanted a permanent position in the US, though, this meant you’d have to do a second postdoc back in the US. I know of several people who took this path. Now, thanks to the […]

 – by New Deal democrat This week’s look at initial jobless claims includes seasonal revisions made to the data for the last five years. Fortunately, they appear to be very minor. So let’s take our typical look. On a weekly basis, initial claims declined -1,000 to 224,000, and the four week moving average declined -4,750 to […]

 – by New Deal democrat Last week I explored how past episodes of sharp increases in politic uncertainty, and decreases in consumer confidence, had played out in the hard data as to both production and consumption. The upshot was that consumers tended to react first, with about a one quarter delay, and producers tended to […]

The housing market continues its slow rebalancing: new and existing home sales rangebound, price pressures including Case Shiller and FHFA steady  – by New Deal democrat Since new home sales as well as the repeat sales price indexes were both reported this morning, let’s update the entire housing market all at once, including existing home sales, […]

A “quick and dirty” update: the employment is historically very weak  – by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic reports today, and even most of the high frequency indicators won’t start coming in for the week until tomorrow, so let me go a little more in depth in what the “quick and dirty” forecasting model […]