New drugs go through clinical trials before they can be marketed. Phase I trials are for safety. Phase II/III trials are for efficacy. If a drug fails these trials, it can’t be sold. One challenge to drug testing is trial enrollment. Ideally, the subjects should be demographically representative. The problem is that there can be […]

 – by New Deal democrat The divergence in the trends between initial and continuing claims continued this week, as the former continued their somnolent good news, while the latter had a slightly disconcerting pop. Initial claims declined -2,000 to 210,000, and the four week average declined -750 to 211,000. On the other hand, with the […]

Back when we lived in Chapel Hill NC, we made a few trips to the Outer Banks where my wife had an uncle who built fishing boats in Buxton NC. Back then, nobody was talking about sea levels rising because of global warming and yet it was obvious back then (early 1980s) that these sandy […]

 – by New Deal democrat As I wrote on Monday, the big question for this year is whether the recessionary effects of the Fed rate hikes have just been delayed. Or whether, because the rate hikes have stopped, so has the headwind they normally produce. Watching manufacturing and construction, especially housing construction, is what I expect […]

Whenever Elon Musk says a thing, I reflexively mistrust it. So when I saw a video clip of Musk making this assertion, I wanted to think I learned something about the auto industry, but then I considered the source: “Large incumbent carmakers sell their cars at low to zero true margin. Most of their profit […]

Liking your present situation right now? Your job, your house, your car, you can keep it and you may have to do so. Buying a new car, house, or getting a different job may be more costly and not pay off. Even if you are not so satisfied, chances maybe you having to manage your […]

Wrong answers only: “saving” Originally Published at Wealth Economics In my last post, I tried to say precisely what the words “wealth” and “assets” mean as they’re used in this blog. This post tackles the question of wealth accumulation. Where does wealth come from? What are the mechanisms that create assets? Households and the accounting-ownership pyramid […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for March 18 – 22 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in […]

History and some excellent up-to-date reporting by Prof. Heather cox Richardson I am sharing here as I subscribe to her Letters from an American. She explains the efforts of a few, a minority of political actors who are attempting to sway the opinions of Americans with their stilted dialogue promoting right-wing beliefs. It should be […]

 – by New Deal democrat There’s no big economic news today, but yesterday existing home sales were released. While they have historically constituted up to 90% of the entire market, they have much less economic impact than new home sales, which involve all sorts of construction activity, followed by landscaping, furnishings, and other sales. Since […]