This is actually related to my day job. For some decades I have been puzzled by two of Kahneman and Tversky’s discoveries (reported very well in this excellent book). First, there is the excessive reliance on diagnostic characteristics (called diagnostic expectations by economists). A classic example is the room with 90 lawyers and 10 engineers. […]
The false dichotomy of climate change remediation Years ago, I had a Facebook friend from my hometown who was a big enthusiast of molten salt nuclear reactor technology. He wasn’t a scientist or engineer, but his dad had worked on MSRs in the ‘60s, and he fetishized his dad’s memory. As some point, I mentioned […]
I am late to the discussion of the (possible) US soft landing. I think I better write about the soft landing (so far) in case it is ceasing to be soft (I am not making a forecast). The remarkable thing is that the dramatic increase in the Federal Funds Rate did not induce a downturn […]
by Joseph Joyce Capital Ebbs and Flows The Republican nomination of Donald Trump as its nominee for President ensures that international trade will be a major issue in the campaign. Trump views trade as a zero-sum game and the existence of U.S. trade deficits as proof that other nations have taken advantage of U.S. openness […]
AB: Run down on the Trump – Musk Get Together by Bill Kristol I’m grateful to Andrew for listening to Donald Trump and Elon Musk last night and sparing me that unpleasantness. But I did listen to some of the clips this morning. Here’s my take: Trump’s awful. This is, I acknowledge, not breaking news. […]
About ten years ago, we had 22 solar panels installed on the roof of our St. Louis house. Half the cost was paid by Ameren, the electric utility, and we got a 30% tax rebate on the balance. But even with reversible metering, we hadn’t made back our cost when we sold the house two […]
I have my usual thoughts about inflation. People confuse levels and changes. I think this is a fundamental cognitive illusion. I think perceived inflation and the perceived effect of inflation on real incomes are based on an impressive pair of errors. 1) people estimate inflation from the price level comparing current prices to prices they […]
Coincident real GDP metric is good, but leading indicators from the GDP report are not: is the Fed listening? – by New Deal democrat Real GDP grew 0.7% in Q2, or a 2.8% annualized rate, a perfectly good number in line with the past three years: Probably even more importantly, the GDP deflator increased 0.6% […]
Yesterday, I posted about geoengineering the oceans as a promising form of carbon capture. But why do we need carbon capture at all? Can’t we just conserve our way out of global warming? No. Here are a couple of reasons why the *only* way to avert climate disaster is to start removing carbon from the […]
Biden has been slightly behind Trump in the polls for months. Still, until now it was easy enough to discern a plausible path to victory. Democratic voters disappointed with Biden would gradually return to the fold as the choice between Biden and Trump became clear. Memories of inflation would fade. Trump would say outrageous things. […]