Paul Krugman writes that Keynesian thought has progressed. I disagree in comments with the usual I do not think that Keynesians accept that there is a natural rate of unemployment. The concept is inconsistent with hysteresis. OJ Blanchard and LH Summers are definitely Keynesians. They presented a model without a natural rate in 1986. I […]

Thought this one might be interesting. Rdan (posted by Robert Waldmann / commentary after the jump) extreme poverty update update: I assume you have clicked the link. I’m not going to snip and paste the graph. Go there if you want to find out what I am talking about. The rate of extreme poverty (income […]

alternate title QE 2.MMMCCCLLXXIX as I am a bit obsessed. One of the many bees in my bonnet is the argument over whether the Fed’s QE 2 policy hinted, suggested, teased and announced August 10 2010 through November 3 2010 had much of an effect. My impression remains that it had remarkably little effect on […]

I was just poking around FRED as I do when I can’t sleep and I discovered something which amazed me (I am often amazed by my ignorance). Non mortgage delinguency rates are low. In fact the delinquency rate on credit card loans of all commercial banks is the lowest on record (records only go back […]

I do not find event studies interesting or convincing. I consider them an example of Schizzo-finance in which the efficient markets hypothesis is switched on and off. The field embraced that hypothesis for a while and I don’t think people understand how often they rely on it. In an event study, the effect of a […]

Did they claim that it showed a permanent tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. James Forder says no. Is the intellectual history and self image of modern macro based entirely on the critique of the legend to a figure which can be read out of context deliberately ? Serious people don’t put it that way, but […]

Suzy Khimm, Kevin Drum and Greg Sargent comment on the series of gallup polls dating back to 1992 in which a solid majority of US adults, ranging from 55% to 77%, say that they think the rich pay less than their fair share of taxes. Please click the link to Drum then come back. I […]

Mark Thoma quotesForecasting the Great Recession: DSGE vs. Blue Chip, by Marco Del Negro, Daniel Herbst, and Frank Schorfheide, Liberty Street: Coincidentally commenter Luis Enrique asked me what I thought of that paper on Gmail. this is commentator Luis Enrique [skip] I am enjoying your to and fro with Simon WL anyway, I just wanted to send […]

Garrett Haake reports Via TPM PALM BEACH, FL — Mitt Romney went well beyond his standard stump speech at a closed-door fundraiser on Sunday evening, and offered some of the most specific details to date about the policies he would pursue if elected. In a speech to donors in the backyard of a private home […]

I don’t understand what Mohammad El-Erian is saying here. I do entirely sympathise with this a professor …advised me that, in order to maximize the probability of success, I should … Make sure to cover issues where I know more than those who will be evaluating my work; and, in putting everything together, make sure […]