I’ll make this quick, since I’m going to get in trouble for writing on a national holiday when my friends are coming for a night of drinking and comparing stats on sports betting apps we’ve been frequenting. But the pace of annual jobs growth is too slow to generate strong wage and salary income. Much […]
I don’t see why the aggregate state funding gap is not numero uno on the ‘risks’ to the US outlook (I usually hear oil, Europe, China, etc., in my line of work). According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, the State budget gap is not expected to clear at least through 2013. From […]
Readers of this blog know that I am in finance, specifically global fixed income. This blog post covers wealth effects in the financial industry, which is a relatively dominant share of total US compensation, 7.3% in 2009 and likely higher now (data are truncated at 2009). My view is that economists underestimate the wealth effects […]
…it seems that way, at least, when I listen to much of the rhetoric coming out of Washington. But it’s not just Washington, it’s Wall Street, too. In my line of work, finance, market participants grapple with the monthly economic data flow, eyeing each release as if it’s telling a new story about the current […]
There are reasons to expect the second half of the year to be be stronger than the first. Here are two: (1) the rebound in industrial activity following supply chain disruptions, and (2) possible impetus to investment spending coming from the depreciation allowance that expires this year. These factors, though, are just dressing up what […]
Yesterday I addressed the weak high-frequency indicators, specifically with respect to leading indicators of investment spending on equipment and software (durable goods). I argued that Q2 has not started off well, given that the real core orders for capital goods are down compared to the January to March average. The BEA reported that Q1 2011 […]
They keep calling it a ‘soft patch’ in my business; but when’s the data going to show otherwise? This soft patch is persistent, and durable goods orders confirm it into Q2 2011. Note: The ‘all manufacturing’ orders Y/Y growth rate are available through March only in Datastream for the chart above; the nondefense capital goods […]
This week further evidence has emerged of Germany’s slowing growth trajectory. At 4.9% annual growth (calendar-adjusted) and a tightening bias from the ECB, this was, of course, to be expected. READ MORE AFTER THE JUMP!Yesterday the Manufacturing May ‘Flash’ PMI by Markit Research highlighted, in my view, that sentiment is unlikely to remain at these […]
There is growing discord between the ECB and national politicians over a ‘soft restructuring’ of Greek debt. The ECB doesn’t want it, while national policy makers grapple over it. And just in case you were wondering what a soft restructuring actually is, Joseph Cotterill at FT Alphaville explains. Beyond the gobbledygook restructuring talk is a […]
Today Eurostat released April 2011 inflation for the Euro area. Prices are increasing at a 2.8% annual pace, up from 2.7% in March and very much above the ECB’s comfort zone of around but slightly below 2%. Today’s report is the second release and includes the cross section of price gains below the headline number. […]