The wage – debt deflation dynamic and the next recession One of the important dynamics why recessions end is that inflation decelerates more than wage growth. Thus, for the 90% or so of people who still have jobs, there are some compelling bargains, enough to jumpstart more spending. That all gets short-circuited if wages actually […]
November Jobs Report: good month, same caveats HEADLINES: +228,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% U6 underemployment rate rose +0.1% from 7.9% to 8.0% Here are the headlines on wages and the chronic heightened underemployment: Wages and participation rates Not in Labor Force, but Want a Job Now: rose +53,000 from 5.175 million […]
An astute progressive critique of the Trump Administration from … CNBC?!? John Harwood of that well known lefty outlet, …. ummm, CNBC …. writes this morning that “Trump has Forgotten his ‘Forgotten People’:” He forgot them on health care. Jettisoning his campaign pledge to “take care of everybody” regardless of income, he proposed cutting federal health […]
I am so thankful that I am an economic blogger A few days late for Thanksgiving, but … like a lot of people, I woke up to a real nightmare one year ago. One decision I made for mental health purposes was to focus like a laser beam on the economy rather than have my […]
No, We Won’t See a Torrent of Investment From the Tax Bill One of the arguments that Republicans are using to support their tax bill is that it will unleash investment. The data says otherwise. Currently, most US economic sectors are operating far below maximum capacity utilization. As the debate on tax policy and its […]
2018 Midterm election economic forecast: a struggling expansion that may amplify a wave We are now one year out from the 2018 midterm elections. Generally speaking, only the more involved voters show up for midterms, which seem to turn mainly on how much voters who “strongly” disapprove of actions in Washington outnumber those who “strongly” […]
Two thoughts on the Virginia election: it’s the net strong disapproval,stupid! But is the primary driver education or age? It’s a slow week for economic news, but we sure had some electoral fireworks on Tuesday! Since I am a data nerd, here are two metrics from Virginia that caught my attention, which I’ll discuss in […]
Halloween potpouri Some comments on the economic data from yesterday and this morning… 1. Personal income and spending. Real, inflation adjusted income was flat, while real spending was up +0.6%. Which means the personal saving rate declined to a new expansion low: We’ve had a steep decline in the savings rate in the past year. […]
Gimme shelter: the real cost of renting vs. homeownership What is the real cost of shelter? Over the last decade there has been lots of discussion of housing prices in isolation. Sometimes that discussion includes an inflation adjustment — which is problematic, since housing constitutes nearly 40% of the entire consumer price index, so in […]
“Hurricane adjusting” initial claims has proven its value For the last month, I deduced a “hurricane adjusted” number for initial claims, which showed that the previous underlying positive trend was intact, with the four week average remaining in the 230,000’s. That approach was borne out by this week’s report, which, at 222,000, was the lowest […]