Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The Scariest Graphic I Made All Week, or, Still More on Excess Reserves and "Money"

One of the nice things about the Kauffman Foundation’s Blogger Conference is the time to let the mind wander and look at data after having your brain scoured. One of the worst things is realizing too late that you’ve got a Really Ugly Graphic, and most of the people who could help with it are […]

If there was a Public Option in PPACA, what grounds would the Supreme Court use to overturn it?

The above is a more-than-semi-serious question. I’ll be blogging/tweeting the Kauffman Foundation’s Bloggers’s Forum tomorrow from 9:30-3:30 EDT (8:30-2:30 here in Kansas City; 6:30-12:30 in DeLong/Thomaville; in Hawaii, they’re still watching Dave Garroway). You can tell it has reached maturity because tomorrow’s presenters include J. Bradford DeLong, Scott Sumner, Tyler Cowen, and Karl Smith—and that’s […]

Default Events, Legal Contracts, Derivatives, and Greece

Barry Ritholtz, who generally knows better, blew a gasket at ISDA for yesterday’s ruling that Greek bonds are not yet in default. Specifically, “The International Swaps and Derivatives Association said on Thursday that based on current evidence the Greek bailout would not prompt payments on the credit default swaps.” > Here is a question for […]

It’s Only the Bottom of the Second: Fearful of Losing My Bet with Lance

Greg Sargent, whose Gatekeeper Job at Kaplan Prep Daily makes him somewhat important in determining the results of elections, cast a pale over my good mood about my dinner bet with Lance Mannion this morning:* Having trouble getting outraged with Romney campaign sending out only good parts of Det[roit] News endorsement. Seems like par for […]

How the Internet Can Make You Smarter, Today’s FT Version

Today’s Page 1, above-the-fold, biggest type headlines for the FT: US PDF edition: “Obama proposes corporate tax rate cut: System ‘outdated, unfair, and inefficient’ US Print edition: “Obama and Romney unveil rival tax plans: Proposals show strong support for reforms” The latter piece waits until the 7th graf to Tell the Truth and Shame the […]

Must-Read of the Day, non-NBER edition

Tim Duy body-slams St. Louis FRB President James Bullard: Estimates of potential GDP are not simple extrapolations of actual GDP from the peak of the last business cycles. They are estimates of the maximum sustainable output given fully employed resources. The backbone of the CBO’s estimates is a Solow Growth model. So I don’t think […]

Santorum Surge, Part 144

Let’s ignore that three of his four wins (including two last night) have come in non-binding caucuses and take a quick look at The Size of the Santorum Surge. Over at Skippy, Our Leader posted a link to a discussion of whether “Romney’s strengths” could beat Obama. I wisecracked, without looking at the data, that […]

Deja Vu All Over Again, or On the Whole…

The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: We have been putting out credit in a period of depression, when it is not wanted and could not be used, and will have to withdraw credit when it is wanted and can be used. But this is not Charles I. Plosser, no matter how similar […]