Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Updates and Notes

Just a quick one: I was wrong; Greg Sargent and Stan Collender were correct. And, yes, I could not be happier about this, though I still expect that any real evidence of Moderate Republican Senators will show up about the same time as a flock of Ugly Chickens (link not guaranteed to work; reference discussed […]

That Time of Year Again

I end up posting this, I believe, every year. And every year, despite not trying at all, I find a newer and better reason to post it. This year, it’s because cities in Virginia, including Harrisonburg City, have their students in school today—a Federal holiday—but made damned certain the kids were out on Friday for […]

What I Missed These Two Days

Hmm, anything unusual in the world? Well, Greg Sargent tries to perpetuate the Myth of Moderate (but of course Unnamed) Republican Senators.  Stan Collender gets punked.  Nothing new on the first, but Collender’s previous piece about the realities of the Ancestral Party gives the lie to Sargent’s delusion.  Economics version: the Republican Party is at […]

The Problem with Macro, and An Apology

There has been much discussion recently of the “problem” with Macroeconomics. See Nick Rowe, Noah Smith (who may have been punked by a self-selecting sample—or may not have), Mark Thoma, Brad DeLong, RDan’s collection here a while back, and the rest of The Usual Suspects.Let’s ignore for the moment that the problem with Macro is […]

A Chart To Explain the Last 30 Years

I’m not certain the authors intend this to mean that a shift to services means that workers will never get paid their MPL. But I think it does. But those at the AEA—er, ASSA—meeting can ask them tomorrow: Jan 06, 2013 8:00 am, Hyatt, Manchester E. More tomorrow. Or some day thereafter.

Dr. Black Did It as a Shorter; Here’s the Data

The problem with waiting overnight to post is that other people figure out the same thing: If the true CPI-E increases faster than CPI, then chained-CPI is worse, not better. It’s actually worse than that.  The measure by which Social Security is raised turns out not to be what we usually call CPI (Consumer Price […]

Notes Toward Economics at (or, more accurately, approaching) the Eschaton

No, not Dr. Black’s blog.  The real eschaton: the end of everything.  Or, in this case, its economics equivalent: the point at which almost all human work is no longer necessary but human beings still exist. The scenario is a simple one.  There are x humans on Earth (x>>1).  Self-repairing, recycling machines can provide all […]

Why We Use Statistics, NFL Example Edition

We are now mostly through Week 10 of the NFL season, which means most teams have played nine games. Unless Kansas City manages to beat Pittsburgh by more than 36 points on Monday*—not, to be gracious about it, the Way to Bet—there will be four teams in the NFL that have give up between 10 […]