Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Dr. Black Did It as a Shorter; Here’s the Data

The problem with waiting overnight to post is that other people figure out the same thing: If the true CPI-E increases faster than CPI, then chained-CPI is worse, not better. It’s actually worse than that.  The measure by which Social Security is raised turns out not to be what we usually call CPI (Consumer Price […]

Notes Toward Economics at (or, more accurately, approaching) the Eschaton

No, not Dr. Black’s blog.  The real eschaton: the end of everything.  Or, in this case, its economics equivalent: the point at which almost all human work is no longer necessary but human beings still exist. The scenario is a simple one.  There are x humans on Earth (x>>1).  Self-repairing, recycling machines can provide all […]

Why We Use Statistics, NFL Example Edition

We are now mostly through Week 10 of the NFL season, which means most teams have played nine games. Unless Kansas City manages to beat Pittsburgh by more than 36 points on Monday*—not, to be gracious about it, the Way to Bet—there will be four teams in the NFL that have give up between 10 […]

It’s Them, and Maybe You – A Tale of Two Cities

Here in suburban New Jersey, we are just now getting power back throughout town. (As of yesterday—remember, remember, the Fifth of November—we were the town in Essex County that had the least restored houses.) A lot of progress today, with teams from Texas and Florida among those called in (which presumably left the NJ teams […]

Are Refis Contractionary?

Update: David Rosnick of CEPR questions this analysis. Update to come when I have Internet access again–which probably will be Saturday at the earliest. Brad DeLong got me thinking a few days ago, and not in a good way, when he quoted the brilliantly (and brilliantly-named) Cardiff Garcia: Thus far the surging mortgage origination business […]

It’s a Good Day

The Big C finally got rid of the inept hedge fund “manager” who finished destroying their franchise. Of course, maybe this time they will replace him with Timmeh, instead of just pretending they will so he swallows more and harder.  Just in case Orszag isn’t enough. Still not buying, but I would seriously consider closing […]

The Female Troops Are Returning, Too

  The Obama Administration—driven by Senior Democrats such as Rush Holt and, one suspects, Michelle—has been very attentive to the needs of veterans. On of the big initiatives of 2011 from the Obama Administration was Joining Forces, an effort to retrain, reeducate, and re-employ America’s veterans. It lead to the Vow to Hire Heroes Act […]

The Devil’s Greatest Trick is Convincing You He Doesn’t Exist

  Felix Salmon (26 Sep 2012): [Secretary of the Treasury and former leaders of the FRB of New York Timmeh] Geithner just isn’t that Machiavellian: his biggest weakness is that he isn’t political enough, rather than that he’s some kind of master puppeteer. Brad DeLong (24 Nov 2009): Geithner is where he is because for […]