Matthew Yglesias has a good discussion of why the poll-based models that give Biden a high probability of winning are probably right, despite the well-known polling errors in 2016. Nonetheless, it seems reasonable to believe that the poll-based models (538, The Economist) are overstating Biden’s chances, for several reasons. Turnout this year will be unusually […]
From Mark Tushnet: Here’s a thought in the event that there is a Biden appointed commission on court reform. What about a Joint Resolution on Judicial Power: “No court shall hold a federal statute unconstitutional unless it concludes that the statute is manifestly unconstitutional.” Tushnet discusses this suggestion and some limitations here. I am somewhat sympathetic […]
From the NYT editorial board: Of all the things President Trump has destroyed, the Republican Party is among the most dismaying. “Destroyed” is perhaps too simplistic, though. It would be more precise to say that Mr. Trump accelerated his party’s demise, exposing the rot that has been eating at its core for decades and leaving […]
Latest on the relief negotiations is here. Short version, Pelosi and Mnuchin are still negotiating over a $1.9 trillion bill; McConnell is floating the idea of a $500 billion dollar bill, but it is far from clear he can or even wants to pass anything. If Pelosi can get to a deal with Mnuchin, that’s […]
Chris Christie: “I believed when I entered the White House grounds, that I had entered a safe zone, due to the testing that I and many others underwent every day,” Mr. Christie said in the statement. “I was wrong. I was wrong not to wear a mask at the Amy Coney Barrett announcement and I […]
A good discussion of the current state of play is here. The short version is Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are negotiating over a package of $2 trillion or so, McConnell plans to introduce a very limited $500 billion package that he may or may not actually have votes to pass (he may just […]
The clip by Senator Whitehouse that Daniel Becker posted here is excellent. For those of you who prefer reading, this issue brief he wrote is also very good: It turns out that Republican appointees to the Supreme Court have, with remarkable consistency, delivered rulings that advantage the big corporate and special interests that are, in […]
Democrats so far have focused on the risk that Amy Coney Barrett poses to the Affordable Care Act. This is completely understandable as electioneering. The ACA was one of their best issues in 2018, and it will be again this year. But . . . By focusing narrowly on the ACA, the Democrats are missing […]
Assuming Trump recovers from the coronavirus and resumes campaigning, this is what I would like to hear from Joe Biden (perhaps at a debate): Like all Americans, I am glad you recovered and avoided serious damage to your health. But I also think that you owe an apology to all the Americans who have lost […]
Trump Wednesday refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he loses in November. He is deliberately undermining confidence in the integrity of mail-in ballot results – mail-in ballots that are expected to favor the Democrats. According to a report in The Atlantic, the White House is laying plans to actively steal the […]