Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

How much should we trust the polls?

Matthew Yglesias has a good discussion of why the poll-based models that give Biden a high probability of winning are probably right, despite the well-known polling errors in 2016.  Nonetheless, it seems reasonable to believe that the poll-based models (538, The Economist) are overstating Biden’s chances, for several reasons. Turnout this year will be unusually […]