Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

More clarity in jobless claims: both post-pandemic seasonality and regime change at work

 – by New Deal democrat As we move further into the calendar year, we are getting more clarity on what has been happening with jobless claims. As a reminder, I look at these because historically they have been a good short leading indicator for the unemployment rate and more broadly for the economy as a whole. […]

Blocking Flu Shots

Started at the end rather than the beginning . . . Blocking Flu shots does not make much sense as Flu Shots are nothing new. The big issue is whether they chose the right vaccine for what will happen each year. “The Journal notes Moderna was one of nine companies to have received a surprise […]

AI gumshoe

“Police arrested a man for a burglary in a city he had never visited after face scanning software deployed across the UK confused him with another person of south Asian heritage. “Alvi Choudhury, 26, a software engineer, was working at the home he shares with his parents in Southampton in January when police knocked on […]

Less than 14 Percent of Immigrants were Charged or Convicted in the Past

When considering the essential, fundamental truth or the most important point of a matter after setting aside all minor details, complications, or distractions AI version). “Ultimately,” “the bottom line,” or “when all is said and done,” Trump does not like immigrants even if legal. Call it what you will. prejudice, discrimination, bigotry, bias . . […]

Per Prof. Edward Leamer’s forecasting method, a yellow flag “Recession Watch” is warranted

 – by New Deal democrat In a landmark paper almost 20 years ago, UCLA Prof. Edward Leamer wrote that “Housing IS the Business Cycle.” In that paper he concluded: In the years before recessions . . . consumers contribute a total of 65% of the leading weakness. In contrast, business spending contributes only 10%…. The temporal […]

Trump Tariffs, Who Pays?

Warning: Today’s Post Will be even Wonkier Than Usual . . . Until recently the question of who pays tariffs (Paul Krugman) wasn’t controversial among economists. The overwhelming consensus was that under normal circumstances tariffs — taxes on imported goods — are passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. There are caveats […]

Oil Exploration Louisiana

Quick and short introduction. The state of Louisiana is suing oil and gas companies for damage to the environment in their exploration, sourcing, and production of oil and gas. In the process of doing so, the state claims the companies caused considerable damage to what is called a Coastal Zone. The issue being gaining the […]

What is college for?

My parents were both college grads. My dad was an MIT-trained chemical engineer. My mom had a bachelor’s degree in psychology. After she finished college, she got married and became a homemaker, eventually raising five children. Needless to say, during that time she wasn’t earning the average salary of a high school grad—she wasn’t earning […]