Announcement of a Looming White Minority Makes Demographers Nervous,
“Announcement of a Looming White Minority Makes Demographers Nervous,” Sabrina Tavernise, The New York Times.”
NYT’s article makes this announcement of White America becoming a minority in the 2040’s like it is new news?.
It is not. In 2006, I exchanged emails with Joel Garreau about the same topic in his article “300 Million and Counting.” Joel concentrated on the arrival of immigrants to the country being good news as it keeps our labor force younger than other countries such as Germany, Russia, etc.
One AB commenter asked whether it makes sense to have an educated populace if they can not pay back the cost of an education. It does makes sense to educate the population as they are better equipped. Equipped to take on the requirements of the economy whether it is manufacturing or service based.
Burdensome student debt in which excessive interest payment resulting from economic hardship being a precursor to paying loan principal only aggravates the problem of debt shackling the borrower to a longer period of time of debt servitude before becoming productive and contributing to society. It behooves the nation to minimize the costs associated with getting an education with low loan interest rates, forgiveness over time, and complete eradication.
A younger work force coupled with educational skills pays off in productivity gains at many different levels.
Joel Garreau also talked of immigration in 2006 in a positive sense:
“One fortuitous result of the enormous wave of immigrants coming to the United States is that the median age here is only a little over 35, one of the lowest among the world’s more developed countries. This country also has the most productive population per person of any country on the planet—no matter how you measure it, and especially compared with Japan and the members of the European Union.”
It has changed somewhat with the 2008 recession and the slack in the Labor Force amongst the prime age.
NYT approaches the issue in a nervous manner.
“The presentation of the data disturbed Kenneth Prewitt, a former Census Bureau director, who saw it while looking through a government report. The graphic made demographic change look like a zero-sum game that white Americans were losing, he thought, and could provoke a political backlash.”
Expectations?
White nationalists worried about losing racial dominance. Progressives envisioned greater political power from greater diversity and a white minority. Others look to the immigration of new people as a way to fill the gap left by retiring baby-boomers.
With each arrival of a new class of immigrant, there has always been a backlash as to how to categorize them. In this instance, the change coming is already here, has been for a couple of decades, and will come to pass in the 2040s well after baby-boomers have passed. Whether politicians or white America resists it, it will not matter as this change will occur. What will matter is whether we give them the proper tools now to be productive later.
As Charles King, a political science professor at Georgetown University states;
“The closer you get to social power, the closer you get to whiteness.”
Charles King wrote about Franz Boas work. Boas was an early 20th-century anthropologist who argued against theories of racial difference.
Boas is at the center of Charles King’s ‘Gods of the Upper Air,’ a group portrait of the anthropologist and his circle, who collectively attempted to chip away at entrenched notions of ‘us and them.’
The book is about women and men who found themselves on the front lines of the greatest moral battle of our time,
King writes, ‘the struggle to prove that — despite differences of skin color, gender, ability or custom — humanity is one undivided thing.’”
In other words as stated by Boas;
“The adaptability of the immigrant seems to be very much greater than we had a right to suppose before our investigations were instituted.”
Children born in the United States had more in common with other US-born children than with the national group — or race, as Grant would have termed it — represented by their parents. Round-headed Jews became long-headed ones. The long heads of Sicilians compressed into shorter heads. The wide faces of Neapolitans narrowing to match those of the immigrants. Immigrants whom they were surrounded, not those of their racial brethren in the old country. There was, in other words, no such thing — in purely physical terms — as a “Jew,” a “Pole,” or a “Slovak,” if one judged by the bodies of the children of first-generation immigrants. The conditions of life, from diet to environment, were having a quick and measurable effect on head forms. Head forms thought to be fixed, inheritable, and indicative of one’s essential type.
The one group never allowed to cross the line into whiteness was African-Americans and the long-term legacy of slavery.
Just an opinion, when Mexicans, African Americans, and other groups were and are in the minority, white America didn’t care. Now the status of white America is changing, they are waking up to it, and they care.
“Upon Becoming an American” – Angry Bear
Set the WayBack Machine for November 2018…
Why the Announcement of a Looming White Minority Makes Demographers Nervous
NY Times – Sabrina Tavernise – Nov 22, 2018
(Concern about a Census Bureau report released in 2015.)
Non-Hispanic Whites May No Longer Comprise Over 50 Percent of the U.S. Population by 2044
Since it is inevitable, after a long period of denial and outright rage against fate, one would expect that whitey would get with the program and realize that there are advantages to being a special interest group. That the protections put in place and contemplated to ensure the rights of minorities are essentially color blind and may be embraced by any group of citizens. Of course this will take some time. Generations of railing against these very rights will perhaps generate some cognitive dissonance as they begin to embrace concepts they’ve vilified all their lives.
SW
I find the Charles King book to be interesting,”Gods of the Upper Air” I am a numbers guy mostly and do not dabble in sociology and phycology. Those are realms of my sister and brother. I find Franz Boas work to be interesting enough to keep me from being bored.
I believe there is an overt attempt to ensure the whiteness of this country as evidenced by the actions of state legislatures, a profoundly biased SCPTUS, and a former president who made no effort to hide his racism and misogyny. It does not stop with just white versus black America. Differences are looked upon as not being equal.
Phycology – looks interesting
The Myth of a Majority-Minority America
The Atlantic – June 13, 2021
The narrative that nonwhite people will soon outnumber white people is not only divisive, but also false.
“By softening and blurring racial and ethnic lines, diversity is bringing Americans together more than it is tearing the country apart.”
Sure. That sounds about right.
That’s a quote from an article in the Atlantic that I posted about, which may or may not get past moderation.
The Myth of a Majority-Minority America
“That sounds about right.”
BTW, that was meant to be ironic. In that the US seems to be persistently polarized over race. So do other parts of the world. It’s a dangerous situation.
I found this poll from the New York Times interesting. The Democrats are favored by 12 points by voters aged 18 to 29 and by 9 points by voters aged 30 to 44. The parties are equal with voters over 65. The Republicans are ahead by 21 points with voters aged 45 to 64.
Which party’s candidate are you more likely to vote for in this year’s election for Congress?
Democratic candidate
Republican candidate
45%
49%
Likely voters
BY GENDER
Men
45
50
Women
47
47
BY AGE
52
40
18 to 29 years old
50
41
30 to 44
38
59
45 to 64
65 and older
48
48
BY RACE/ETHNICITY
40
55
White
60
34
Hispanic
78
18
Black
BY EDUCATION
Bachelor’s degree
or higher
55
41
No bachelor’s degree
39
54
Don’t know/refused to answer
Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 792 likely voters nationwide from Oct. 9 to 12, 2022. Candidate support includes voters who say they lean toward a party’s candidate. White and Black voters include non-Hispanic respondents who report that they are of only one race. Hispanic voters are of any race.
By Ashley Wu
Republicans Gain Edge as Voters Worry About Economy, Times/Siena Poll Finds
NY Times – Oct 17
With elections next month, independents, especially women, are swinging to the G.O.P. despite Democrats’ focus on abortion rights. Disapproval of President Biden seems to be hurting his party.
Numbers…
Likely voters: 45% favor Dems, 49% favor GOP.
By age, among those below 45, Dems are narrowly favored. For those 45-54, GOP is strongly favored (59% to 38%). For those over 65, its tied.
By ethnicity, among whites, 40% favor Dems, 55% favor GOP. Among Hispanics, 60% favor Dems. Amng Blacks, 78% favor Dems.
Buried in these results, one sees that more likely voters disapprove of Joe Biden than they do Trump. Trump: favorable 43%, unfavorable 52%. Biden: favorable 39%, unfavorable 58%.
This is disturbing. Does it reflect the power of memes?
In 2024, likely voters supposedly favor Trump over Biden (45% to 44%).
detailed results