Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Of a Time

“Because, that is just the way it is,” we are told. The ‘way it is’, for sure, but that doesn’t mean that it is how it should be. Or, we hear, “Because, that is the way it has always been.” It’s too late to change the ‘always has been’ part, but just because we have […]

Real retail sales in March continue to show a weaker consumer sector, forecast weaker jobs reports

Real retail sales in March continue to show a weaker consumer sector, forecast weaker jobs reports For the past few months, I have suspected that a sharp deceleration beginning with the consumer sector of the economy was more likely than not. The retail sales report for March was consistent with that suspicion. Nominally retail sales […]

The libertarian information filter, vaccine hesitancy, and the “focused protection” con

On February 11, 2022, Faye Flam published an opinion piece in Bloomberg titled “Mask Mandates Didn’t Make Much of a Difference Anyway.”  The subhead was “The policies clearly didn’t stop omicron. Let’s focus on tactics that have worked better.” The headline is somewhat misleading.  Flam acknowledges that masks may be beneficial, especially high-quality masks, and […]

Watching the BA.2 “bump”

Coronavirus dashboard for April 13: watching the BA.2 “bump” The BA.2 “bump” (h/t Dr. Eric Topol) is upon us (and hopefully a “bump” is all it is). Let’s take a look at where we stand. Cases bottomed 8 days ago at 28,378. As of yesterday, they had increased to 32,835: Hospitalizations have continued to decline, […]

The employment sector of the economy continues to do just fine

Jobless claims: the employment sector of the economy continues to do just fine [Note: I’ll comment on this morning’s retail sales report for March separately] Initial jobless claims rose 18,000 to 185,000 from their 50+ year last week. The 4 week average rose 2,000 from last week’s all-time low to 172,250. Continuing claims declined -48,000 […]

SPR- 20 year low, Distillate Exports higher, Domestic Supply Low

RJS, Focus on Fracking; Summary; Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 20-year low; US distillates exports at a 45 month high leaves domestic supplies at an 8 year low The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending April 8th indicated that after a near record […]

Increasing Costs are driving Insurers and Systems Apart

Some History 2014: A frenzy of hospital mergers into ACOs as detailed by Philip Longman and Paul Hewitt could leave many families having lesser amounts of healthcare paid for by healthcare insurance due to healthcare industry consolidation leading to higher prices. We have seen this happen with higher prices for insurance plans, increased deductibles, and […]

March consumer inflation part 2: I told you so

March consumer inflation part 2: I told you so; the Fed *must* start paying attention to house price indexes This is the second part of my take on the March consumer inflation report. As you may have already read, total inflation clocked in at +1.2% for March alone! YoY consumer prices are up 8.6%, the […]