Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

When Big Sur Met Silicon Valley: Remembering The Santa Cruz Nonlinear Dynamical Systems Collective

When Big Sur Met Silicon Valley: Remembering The Santa Cruz Nonlinear Dynamical Systems Collective I spent Memorial Day weekend with extended family members in Santa Cruz, near where many of them live, but with none of them right there  It was most pleasant, but explaining the nature of the place and the University of California […]

Bring Back the Deutschmark

My plan for Europe. In comments JackD asked me what I thought of Italy leaving the Eurobloc. The problem is that it is easier said than done — the instant it becomes a serious possibility there will either be the mother of all bank runs or a banking holliday. Everyone (including your humble blogger) will […]

Investors Not Pleased With Italian Politicians

The extreme conflict between the establishment and the new natonal populist majority in Parliament has spooked investors. The difference between the Italian and German 10 year treasury rates just jumped up about 100 basis points. This isn’t a crisis yet. I recall back when Italia caught a bit of Greek contagion (before ECB president Mario […]

Projection and Disavowal

I don’t believe in intellectual property… I don’t believe in compound interest… Nobody believes in the lump-of-labor fallacy. Mr. Nadella is engaging in a game of projection and disavowal that is as old as capitalism. He is affirming the reality of an event that only happens in the imagination — the production of something out […]

Carlo Cottarelli

Carlo Cottarelli was asked to try to form an Italian government by President Sergio Mattarella. There is no chance that Cottarelli will obtain the confidence of Parliament (parties including a majority of deputies have brought up the possibility of impeaching Mattarella for nominating Cottarelli). Mattarella is using his extraordinary powers to fight populist nationalists who […]

The Italian Crisis: La resa di Conte

(literally the surrender of Conte but a reference to The Big Gundown). updated to comply with the Italian criminal code (which forbids vilifying the President of the Republic) I have to write about Italian politics, because everyone is (and I live in Rome) but you don’t have to read it. I will try one paragraph […]

Housing prices and recessions II

I wrote about how high house prices are correlaed with poor growth (partly because that which has gone up goes down). The data set was heroically collected by Jorda, Schularick, and Taylor who also used it for a paper which is actually very worth publishing (and published here). They find that high housing prices and […]

Memorial Day 2018

Memorial Day 2018 For all those, of whatever race, creed, color, or nationality, who gave their lives so that government of the People, by the People, and for the People shall not perish from the Earth: < Gettysburg National Cemetery Antietam National Cemetery Arlington National Cemetery May they rest in peace.