Briefly: Prices are up. The unknown is whether and how much tariffs are impacting prices. Much can be influenced by news reports to the public. Prices did increase on imports. Are Tariffs Raising U.S. Retail Prices? Econofact The Issue: Tariffs on imported goods have risen steeply since President Trump’s second inauguration, to the highest level […]
– by New Deal democrat In my note yesterday about the July CPI, I noted the transition from the trend where overall inflation ex-shelter was low, and shelter was high but disinflating, to a trend where inflation ex-shelter while still low was increasing, as shelter contributed the most to disinflation. The question was, and will be […]
Trump isn’t a jobs creator—the jobs reports are down. So what does Trump do? He fires the Commissioner of Labor Statistics. How many jobs will shooting the messenger create? Meanwhile, his threatened tariffs have stocks headed down. Will he fire Wall Street? A fed governor steps down, making room for a Trump appointment and setting […]
There is little doubt in my mind, inflation will increase. Prices will increase in the name of inflation whether warranted or not. We experienced similar during the Covid epidemic. We also saw companies take advantage of shortages also with price increases which do little to increase supply. This time we have a president in office […]
– by New Deal democrat Today’s GDP report for Q2 was pretty much as we expected, i.e., payback from the front-running of import tariffs in Q1. But as usual, my main focus is on the two long leading components. The headline was a 3.0% annualized increase in real GDP, rebounding from the -0.5% decrease in Q1 […]
A bit of Forest Gump, Paul Krugman and tariffs this Sunday morning. And as usual, dealing with Trump is a deal where you never know what you are going to get or be in the deal. “My mama always said, ‘Life was like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get.’” Movie: […]
Traditionally, tariffs have been used to protect domestic industry, particularly agriculture and labor-intensive manufacturing. Trump has argued that his tariffs will return manufacturing to the United States and further that they will raise revenue helping offset the $3.4 trillion increase the tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations will add to the debt over the […]
It is almost laughable. TR__p’s wishy-washy back and forth on tariffs may have have caused the Fed Chair to delay a decrease. It sure sounds or reads like it. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers this last Tuesday, the recent economic data would have likely justified continuing to lower the Fed rates if not for concerns […]
– by New Deal democrat Let me start this post by picking up where I left off yesterday. In yesterday’s post I suggested that an absolute YoY decline in intermodal rail freight might well show up in this morning’s report from the AAR. And as the below chart shows, that’s exactly what happened, with intermodal traffic […]
In other words, it is not much to be chasing and probably cost us more in lost trade due to Trump’s tinkering with it to extract concessions from other countries. If you look at the chart, you can see Individual and Corporate taxes made up the bulk of the income tax receipts or federal revenue. […]