“Global Battle Royale at COP30 between Fossil Fuel Producers and Green Energy Advocates,” Informed Comment – Juan Cole Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) . . . Fiona Harvey at The Guardian reports from the COP30 climate conference that a bloc comprising such countries as India, China, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt and Bolivia (under its new right-wing President Rodrigo […]
– by New Deal democrat While this morning’s much delayed September jobs report was the big news of the day, the DoL did resume their normal weekly reporting of unemployment claims, so let me in turn resume my normal weekly note of them. Initial claims declined -8,000 to 220,000 while the four week moving average […]
– by New Deal democrat There was no new official data reported this morning, including the normal monthly report on housing permits, starts, and construction. Yesterday the Department of Labor did partially update several weeks of jobless claims data, which helps us estimate what might happen with the unemployment rate when the September jobs report is […]
As with yesterday, the good news is that important official economic data is being reported again. The bad news is that it is very stale, as in covering last August. – by New Deal democrat Still, one important area that private data did not cover well during the shutdown was orders and spending on durable goods, […]
– by New Deal democrat This week the normal empty period for new data after the monthly jobs report is of course compounded by the government shutdown. There is no noteworthy new private data coming out until Thursday, so don’t be surprised if I play hooky tomorrow. But today let me follow up on some macro […]
– by New Deal democrat As I have done since the beginning of the government shutdown, the unadjusted number of initial and continuing claims can be calculated based on reporting by the States, plus DC, and Puerto Rico. Then, by applying the same adjustment as was used for the same week last year, the seasonally adjusted […]
– by New Deal democrat The Senior Loan Officer Survey is a long leading indicator, telling us about credit conditions that typically turn worse a year or more before the economy turns down, and improve just at the economy is ready to turn up. Fortunately, since it is reported by the Federal Reserve, it is unaffected […]
– by New Deal democrat With the shutdown of the official government sources, along with the regional Fed indexes, the ISM manufacturing and services indexes have become especially important. To recap, because of manufacturing’s diminished importance to the general economy, the services index has become significantly more important. For forecasting purposes, I assign a 75% weight […]