by Rebecca Wilder The Euro Area Precedent for Policy Failure Last weekend, a leaked Troika report (Troika = ECB + EC + IMF) revealed that European policy makers now comprehend that the Greek policy prescription is not working (bold by yours truly): The growth and fiscal policy adjustments assumed under the program individually have precedent […]

by Rebecca Wilder German industry is plugging away. Ending in August, the 3-month average of the seasonally- and calendar-day adjusted volume of industrial production (excluding construction) maintained a quick 8.3% annualized pace. Even if this core measure of industrial activity falls another 1% in September, the Q3 quarterly annualized pace would be 10.5% – a […]

By Rebecca Wilder This ‘Competitiveness’ Thing Is a Scam What is ‘competitiveness’? It’s an important part of the euro area leaders’ negotiated terms in the July 21st Summit announcement by the European Heads of State. The first paragraph, #4, and #11 of the announcement all refer to this issue of ‘competitiveness’: We also reaffirm our […]

by Rebecca Wilder Global slowdown underway – it’s more than the Japanese supply chain disruptions The global economic rebound is slowing markedly. With a tightening bias in emerging markets and a US recovery that continues to disappoint, external demand for any country that ‘needs it’ – those countries mired in fiscal austerity without monetary autonomy, […]

by Rebecca Wilder Edward Harrison draws our attention to the euro area bond crisis: Spain, Italy, Belgium yields now under attack. I’d like to add to this thread by offering some illustrations of the polarizing of bond markets that’s coincident with the euro area bond crisis. (Notice I do not say currency crisis because it’s […]

After the US report on Q2… Angry Bear and credit market weakness in the eurozone, Rebecca takes a look at the retail side of the economy: Retail sales in Germany and Spain were reported last week for the month of June. On a working-day and not-seasonally adjusted basis, real retail sales fell 7.0% on the […]

Rebecca takes note of credit growth in many of the Euro countries and notes indications of continued deteriorating macro economies in Newsneconomics: Today the ECB released details on monetary aggregates for the euro area. According to the statement on the asset side of the consolidated balance sheet of the euro area monetary financial institutions (MFIs): […]

by Rebecca Wilder What do you want to wager that the IMF’s a bit overly optimistic on the outlook for Greek nominal GDP? Monday, June 27, 2011 Newsneconomics These jokers have no idea what they’re doing. The IMF has overshot the ex-post path of Greek nominal GDP in each and every one of their World […]

Traditionally, non-commercial banking (i.e., everything except savings deposits and consumer loans) was about one of two things: Tax arbitrage or Regulatory arbitrage The rest is window dressing; that is, it was basic financial intermediation, usually for the purpose of helping Corporate and/or High Net Worth clients.* That was until the late 1990s and the Noughts, […]

by Mike Kimel An excellent post by Simon Johnson. The managing director of the IMF is the impresario of any bailout. The big decisions must be negotiated with all significant stakeholders but this still leaves enormous scope for discretion. If Ms. Lagarde becomes managing director she can directly influence the terms of IMF involvement – […]