Wilder on ‘Real retail sales in Europe: will German consumers save the day? Maybe, perhaps’
After the US report on Q2… Angry Bear and credit market weakness in the eurozone, Rebecca takes a look at the retail side of the economy:
Retail sales in Germany and Spain were reported last week for the month of June. On a working-day and not-seasonally adjusted basis, real retail sales fell 7.0% on the year in Spain. In contrast, working-day and seasonally adjusted real retail sales surged over the month in Germany, 6.3%, and posted a 2.6% annual gain.
But the Spanish data is better than the non-seasonal numbers would suggest. In fact, accounting for seasonal factors as in the manner done by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, Spanish real retail sales posted a monthly gain, 1.2% in June. Don’t get too giddy on me – the Spanish data looks awful in a small panel (time series and cross section).
The rest of the post is here: Real retail sales in Europe: will German consumers save the day? Maybe, perhaps
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/07/eurusd-60min-buy-pullback_21.html
My comment is off topic:
I would like to see a comparison of U.S. and EU-15 retail sales. I’ve thought for some time that the U.S. and EU-15 comparison should be made in reviewing global economic performances.
I understand that the population of the EU-15 is larger than that of the U.S. on the order of 80 million or so. As such, the retail sales “advantage” should go to the EU-15.
My expectation is that U.S. retail sales on a monthly basis exceed the EU-15 volume of retail sales.
If U.S. retail sales exceed those of the EU-15, both before and after the recession, what does that say about the calls for more U.S. demand?
The comparison could also indicate the levels of household credit used by U.S. and EU-15 residents.
This type of analysis might spark more interest in international economic news and data. It might attract a broader audience at AB that is more interested in macro economic issues.
Well, you’ve got about 60% of the Eurozone charted here (Germany, Italy, and Spain) – I’d say that’s a good proxy.
But Germany is important. Because while the Periphery are deleveraging, it’s essentially ‘up to’ the German consumer (really, the Germans since they are the driver of excess saving in the Euro area) to supply the demand for resources and goods and services abroad. This will happen naturally over time, with the demographics ageing quickly, but more is needed now.
Rebecca
Rebecca,
I am seeking a rollup of such data (added together). That has more meaning if compared to U.S. economic performances. Viewing the performances of individual European countries is fine for many discussions, but that doesn’t create much of an impression if comparing the USA to Europe. I choose the EU-15 for a reason, as it is easily recognizable and it’s a good comparison economically.
As you know, the EU15 is comprised of Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.
I believe that Germany, Italy, and Spain only make up roughly 49% of the EU-15 population.
What I am interested in is a cumulative rollup for EU-15 retail sales data. Eurostat doesn’t list “retail sales” as a category of economic data as far as I can determine.
Here is an example of the type of comparison I am recommending:
Private final consumption expenditure, current prices
Million EUR (SA)
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=teina020&plugin=1
2011Q1
EU-15 1693677.7
Euro area 1353735.8
USA 1931962.7
2008Q3
EU-15 1655677.8
Euro area 1312619.2
USA 1683687.7
* Euro area (16 countries)
It’s hard to attract interest in international economics on these American econ blogs due to a serious lack of focus by most American economist bloggers, and American readers of such blogs.
I am recommending a comparison tool that may draw more interest. The same can be accomplished for all regions of the world. Essentially, it would appear that many American economist bloggers don’t have personal interest […]
I was talking about 60% of the EA (euro area). My articles are European focused, rather than an international comparison with other countries outside of the US. Thanks, Rebecca
Here is the retail trade report for May: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/4-05072011-AP/EN/4-05072011-AP-EN.PDF
Rebecca,
I know that your articles are only oriented to Europe. That’s fine for your personal blog.
I am trying to help improve general readership at AB and elsewhere on the majority of American econ blogs.
Again, there is no way that Germany, Italy, and Spain represent 60% of the population of the EU-15 or the euro area. I believe it’s closer to 49% for the EU-15 and even less for the euro area (EA-17).
Thanks for the report. Unfortunately, it doesn’t state Euro values.
MG,
“I believe it’s closer to 49% for the EU-15 and even less for the euro area (EA-17).”
You’re wrong. Germany plus Italy plus Spain is 55.6% of the EA 17 in 2010 (I rounded up to 60%). Include France, and that’s 76.6% of the euro area.
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/national_accounts/data/main_tables#
I have no idea where this is going. I can write what I want – if it’s not welcome here by the AB readership, then so be it. But other sites find value in my work. And clearly Dan Crawford finds value here.
I do not compare the EU to the US because that’s nonsensical for most economic and policy circumstances, except one based on population. There are many different currencies and fiscal policies that make up the EU. The EU budget it tiny and really just facilitates economic interaction across the borders.
Thank you for the suggestion. Rebecca
MG,
P.S. I understand that you are trying to help. I do address Europe more so on News N Economics, given that I found some time ago that the detail to which I describe European economics is of less interest here at AB.
I apologize if my tone is somewhat unprofessional.
Rebecca
Rebecca,
Your main posts are among the very few that will help undue the problem at Angry Bear. I wish Dan had the support of 20 Rebeccas. AB needs to restore some of its previous focus on macro economic issues. In turn, that will draw a stronger group of participants as well as improve overall readership.
If only we had 20 Rebeccas!
Rebecca:
You are kidding, correct? I work for Germans in automotive and in electronics. I also state to my German boss, I am the only process person he has who can walk into a factory and analyyze it.
European economics and politics is of interest to me as I often time tease my German bosses about their alleged desires to go back to the Deutsch Mark which they rapidly deny. Without the rest of Europe and changing Euros to $dollars, they would be doomed in selling their product anywhere else in Europe. The Euro is the great equalizer for Germany making their product more affordable. The US is a low cost country when compared to Germany.
Keep posting here, as I read it the same as Linda Beals and Beverly Mann. Email me please as I have more to say on the matter.
Rebecca,
Germany, Italy, and Spain represent 57% of the total population of the EU-17. My error, as I was recalling the EU-27 numbers. I didn’t run the EU-17 numbers until Sunday evening.
Germany, Italy, and Spain only represent 47% of the total population of the EU-15. Previously, I stated the figure as 49%.
I have no reservations telling you that I don’t have any particular interest in the EU-17 composition in comparison to the EU-15. Economically, Western European economic strength is represented quite well by the EU-15. And contray to your thinking about regional economy comparisons between the EU and USA being “nonsensical”, the comparisons are quite important in the real world of goods production and sales.
Here’s the population data:
Demography Report
European Commission Staff Working Document
2010
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/population/documents/Tab/report.pdf
The EU15 is comprised of Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.
2009 population data for EU-15:
AT 8,355,260 Austria
BE 10,753,080 Belgium
DK 5,511,451 Denmark
FI 5,326,314 Finland
FR 64,366,894 France
DE 82,002,356 Germany
EL 11,260,402 Greece
IE 4,450,030 Ireland
IT 60,045,068 Italy
LU 493,500 Luxembourg
NL 16,485,787 Netherlands
PT 10,627,250 Portugal
ES 45,828,172 Spain
SE 9,256,347 Sweden
UK 61,595,091 United Kingdom
EU-15 total 396,357,002
—–
396,357,002 EU-15
187,876,696 Germany, Italy, Spain
47%
===========
The eurozone (EU-17) currently consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain.
2009 population data for EU-17:
AT 8,355,260 Austria
BE 10,753,080 Belgium
CY 796,900 Cyrus
FI 5,326,314 Finland
FR 64,366,894 France
DE 82,002,356 Germany
EL 11,260,402 Greece
IE 4,450,030 Ireland
IT 60,045,068 Italy
LU 493,500 Luxembourg
MT 413,607 Malta
NL 16,485,787 Netherlands
PT 10,627,250 Portugal
SK 5,412,254 Slovakia
SI 2,032,362 Slovenia
ES 45,828,172 Spain
EU-17 total 328,649,236
——
328,649,236 EU-17
187,876,696 Germany, Italy, Spain
57%
Rebecca – “I do not compare the EU to the US because that’s nonsensical for most economic and policy circumstances, except one based on population. There are many different currencies and fiscal policies that make up the EU. The EU budget it tiny and really just facilitates economic interaction across the borders.”
Your first sentence provides an indication, unfortunately, of your lack of professional experience in working with or working for manufacturers, intermediate goods, and finished goods suppliers who have considerable interest in the marketplaces of the EU-15, EU-17, and EU-27. In the real world of product manufacturing, sales, marketing, and distribution, there is nothing nonsensical about the general economic conditions, taxation, and other government polices of those nations. In truth, there are very few currencies in the EU-15 and, in point of fact, that is not an overriding issue for marketshare sales with the exception of exchanges rates while generating sales. Ask any of the automobile or electronic goods manufacturers. Plenty of goods from different regions of the world were sold in Europe before the Euro was rolled out. Sales don’t wait for such changes.
That you fail to note the regional marketplace considerations doesn’t mean that you’re right that it is nonsensical to compare the EU or EU-15 to the US. Quite the opposite is true for major corporations and smaller corporations engaged in global sales. The EU, EU-15, and US comparisons are made in conference rooms and board rooms all over the United States, and other nations for that matter. And those comparisons in production costs and product sales are not only warranted, but serve as career makers and breakers.
Your primary focus on the EU and your treatment of it in isolation is a severe limitation in my judgment. I have encountered similar thinking over the years, but few of those individuals survived many conference and board meetings. For good reason. I have sat through plenty of meetings where podium presenters pitched their single country sales info without any consideration of regional performances (EU-15, for example) as compared to other regions in the world (U.S. or North American sales, for example). And some of those corporations suffered sales losses until such time as regional comparisons became a primary focus as they should be. I have always enjoyed the stream of excuses why a country sales leader couldn’t explain how his market’s considerable discretionary spending could be tapped for additional sales. But the days of blowing off regional sales comparisons are long gone, as should be the case.
I grant that you may not be the right economist or analyst to make any presentations on regional economic performances in light of your prejudice on the subject. I raised a simple issue, retail sales, and recommended a regional comparison of such sales in the EU-15 and the United States. It’s a valid regional comparison whether you understand it or not.
Your general posts are very good, but if the goal is to spark greater reading interest on this side of the Big Pond, I have suggested ways that may help grow the readership audience not only on Angry Bear but elsewhere.
I respect the fact that the choice is yours, but thinking that comparison of major regional economic performances are nonsensical is well short of the reality of business economics and ag economics. You may not grasp the concept but thousands of business leaders do.
Rebecca,
I do support and value your main posts, but as evidenced above I will not pull punches when I think you are overlooking something very important in the global business world. I would be providing a disservice to you and others if I didn’t challenge your thinking on such matters.
I may not always agree with you, but I appreciate your efforts here and on your own blog. I have made a very big deal out of your blogging articipation with a number of professional individuals across the nation as well as with Dan, the AB blog owner.