Jobless claims hoist yellow flag again; employment and unemployment likely to show further deceleration tomorrow  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 13,000 to 242,000 last week, while…

Using the stock market and unemployment as an easy and timely coincident recession indicator  – by New Deal democrat My fellow forecaster Bob Dieli has a measure he calls “DeltaDelta,” basically an…

Initial jobless claims continue positive, suggesting good news for the tomorrow’s February unemployment rate as well  – by New Deal democrat The most important reason I cover initial jobless claims…

…claims is the lowest increase since the beginning of March 2023. The net is a slightly positive continuing signal for economic expansion. With tomorrow’s jobs report, including the unemployment rate,…

…the unemployment rate, even as the economy has continued to grow. Since these unemployed new arrivals did not previously hold jobs, it also explains why the unemployment rate rose even…

…many times before: the YoY% change in initial unemployment claims (red) vs. the YoY% change in the unemployment rate, prior to the pandemic: It is crystal clear that initial claims,…

…Fed began actively managing interest rates over 60 years ago, expansions and recessions have followed a typical pattern. The unemployment rate decreases until ultimately inflation increases. Real wages and income…

…Provide nearly $1 billion in additional unemployment insurance money for states, as well as loans to states to fund unemployment insurance – Funding and cost waivers to make COVID-19 testing…

…continuing claims. So while it is less leading, the unemployment rate tracks closer to the total. And in this expansion, the unemployment rate for the native-born tracks even closer than…

…year, while 41% are hopeful that interest rates will fall, exceeding the 35% saying interest rates will rise. The public is divided over whether unemployment will increase (38%) or decrease…