Energy Star Efficiency Program
…environmental protection and economic growth. It boosts the market for energy-efficient products and benefits companies that design appliances that earn the label. A home that decides to buy Energy Star…
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Deficit Forecasting
…to 2009, as projected in 1/03, 8/03, 1/04, and today. The final bar, labeled “Today (*)” adds $1 trillion to realistically, but conservatively, account for (1) not allowing all of…
Forecasting the Presidential election: simply knowing whether the economy is expanding or in recession gives you the correct answer more than 2/3 of the time (Part 1)
by New Deal democrat Forecasting the Presidential election: simply knowing whether the economy is expanding or in recession gives you the correct answer more than 2/3 of the time If…
The Relative Price of Housing and Subsequent GDP growth in the USA
The great recession of 2008-9 followed an extraordinary house price bubble. The sluggish was characterized by a very slow recovery of residential investment. Oddly, the extensive revision of macroeconomic models…
Election Forecasting
Polls vs Polls plus. Rule number 1 of forecasting is do not quarrel with fivethirtyeight.com Rule number 538 is not ever. So here I go. I am going to start…
The Debut of the Deranged DOOOMers, 2021 edition: No, the strong advance of the Index of Leading Indicators is not forecasting a recession
The Debut of the Deranged DOOOMers, 2021 edition: No, the strong advance of the Index of Leading Indicators is not forecasting a recession Five to ten years ago, I used…
Are personal consumption expenditures a helpful forecasting (or even nowcasting) metric? An overview
Are personal consumption expenditures a helpful forecasting (or even nowcasting) metric? An overview – by New Deal democrat As I’ve noted a number of times recently, in addition to payrolls…
Jobless claims still positive for forecasting purposes; the unresolved seasonality issue should be resolved shortly
…were down -8.8%, and the four week average down -7.5%, respectively the second best, and best, comparisons in 18 months. Since the YoY figures are more reliable as recession forecasting…
Corporate Profits Increased Consistently Since Q1 2023, They are Forecasting No Recession 2025
…report: The bottom line is that corporate profits have increased consistently since Q1 2023. Absent external factors (like the imposition of widespread tariffs!), they are forecasting no recession in 2025….
Per Prof. Edward Leamer’s forecasting method, a yellow flag “Recession Watch” is warranted
…By the terms of Prof. Leamer’s forecasting method, a yellow flag “Recession Watch” is warranted. Should the three month averages of motor vehicle sales and new orders for consumer durables…