Jobless claims: a good example of why my forecasting discipline demands a confirmed trend – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims for the last week of July rose 6,000…
…sold at major retailers today, such as legendary Half of Fame MLB pitcher Nolan Ryan’s private label beef that is carried exclusively at Kroger stores, or at his private label…
…popular vote. Prof. Geoffrey Moore, who for decades published the Index of Leading Indicators, and founded the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) in 1993, wrote Leading Economic Indicators: New Approaches…
– by New Deal democrat Over the past year, I have downgraded the importance of manufacturing indicators as a forecasting tool for the economy as a whole. This post explores…
Forecasting the 2020 election: the economic baseline (or, don’t count on a recession) Four years ago, I decided to use my set of “long leading indicators” to forecast the 2016…
This week’s Econoblog from the Wall Street Journal Online is up. Jim Hamilton and I discuss economic forecasting – the good, the bad, and the ugly. Kash…
…understand its costs. Besides – when one’s economic modeling approach begins with what would Karl have me say, it is likely not to be a very reliable means for forecasting….
Forecasting a further upturn in the unemployment rate: what works? – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I read a post over at Seeking Alpha in which the author confidently predicted…
More Likely Bad Economic Forecasting: This Time From OECD And CBO That would be the quintessential establishment and boringly conventional Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, the Paris-based “rich nations’”…
…physicians what they already k new, Depakote was a very valuable medication for “off-label” (unapproved uses). In the irony department, prescribing and administering Depakote for off-label uses is legal, and…