…first outright YoY decline. What about producers of goods and services in the US? For that we can turn to the regional Fed manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes. So far in…

…home health, hospice care, skilled nursing care) and Part B (physician services, durable medical equipment, outpatient drugs, mental health, ambulance services). The vast majority of plans (89% in 2024) also…

…the listing. Providers convicted (of different kinds of fraud against Medicaid and Medicare) included ambulance service providers, durable medical equipment suppliers, diagnostic labs, nursing homes, pain clinics, pharmacies, physical therapists,…

…contraction as well. Together with other negative readings in the goods-producing sector of the economy and flagging if still positive services indicators, the yellow flag now transitions into a red…

…One reason why the steep decline in housing has not caused a recession yet is that other durable goods purchases, and in particular motor vehicle purchases, have not followed suit….

…of metrics in the housing sector have now turned down. The final shoe has dropped. Now we pay more attention to short leading indicators like major durable goods purchases and…

…All of this is part of a complex reaction to the chaos of imposition/postponements etc. of tariffs. Needless to say, it remains to be seen just how durable this is….

…noted that tariff costs already are being passed down to consumers through higher prices, especially durable goods with a high import content. Uncertainty with tariffs and trade is likely to…

…was she so wrong? [McArdle may have been right to wonder if a policy facing fierce partisan opposition would ultimately prove durable, but why should that make the slightest difference…

…the “third leg of the stool” in leading durable goods is the wider manufacturers’ new orders component, which I reported on last week. To reiterate, here is the pre-pandemic historical…