…uptick in YoY inflation to 1.7% from 1.1% in November.  Aside from the pandemic, for the past 40 years, recessions had happened when CPI less energy costs (red) had risen…

…report showed that the composite price index for all goods less food and energy goods was 0.1% higher in February, we can thus approximate that real retail sales excluding food…

…was the biggest single month gain since June 2009, coming out of the Great Recession: Leaving aside the pandemic, since the 1980s recessions have only happened when CPI less energy…

…core retail sales were up by almost 10.9% for the month…since the March CPI report showed that the the composite price index of all goods less food and energy goods…

…deaths and lockdowns. Here’s the monthly %change since the beginning of 2020 in total inflation (blue), core, i.e., less food and energy (red), and less energy only (gold): So let’s…

…the the composite price index of all goods less food and energy goods was 2.0% higher in April, we can thus figure that real retail sales excluding food and energy…

…the International Energy Agency (IEA), the oil-pricing agencies Platts and Argus, ‎the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the oil consultancy Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) and the industry newsletter Petroleum…

…composite price index of all goods less food and energy goods was 1.8% higher in May, we can thus figure that the change in real retail sales excluding food and energy…

…than 2.0% over the month . . . since the July CPI report showed that the the composite price index of all goods less food and energy goods was 0.5%…

…of estimates from six “secondary sources”, namely the International Energy Agency (IEA), the oil-pricing agencies Platts and Argus, ‎the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the oil consultancy Cambridge Energy Research…