…Rule forecast, the recent two-week excursion higher means that the monthly average for May is likely to be higher than previous eight months, while continuing claims will be right in…

…be held accountable to laws or rules. The MAGA Republicans are illustrating that disrespect for the rule of law on a daily basis as they work to undermine the courts…

…one post. Let me just begin by restating that the Household Survey for May was simply recessionary. The “real time” Sahm Rule as of May is at .37. The below…

…struck down the ATF rule limiting access to bump stocks.  This decision gave a victory to an intensely motivated pro-gun faction in the Republican coalition on an issue that is…

…cut back sharply on the power of federal agencies to interpret the laws they “administer.” SCOTUS ruled courts should rely on their own interpretation of ambiguously written laws. The decision…

 – by New Deal democrat In my discussion yesterday of why the Sahm Rule might be giving a false signal at present, I noted that “in addition to the 1980-81…

…Which brings me to the update of the “Sahm rule” forecast. As I have written numerous times, for over 50 years initial claims have led the unemployment rate. This year…

…It’s possible the “Sahm rule” will be triggered as a result, but recall that the comparison rate for that rule is also going to increase 0.1% this month as well….

…shortly before or during recessions. The U3 unemployment rate rose 0.2% to 4.3%, triggering the “Sahm rule” recession indicator. The U6 underemployment rate rose 0.5% to 8.2%, 1.4% above its…

…Vanden Houten. The data has, however, kicked off chatter about the so-called “Sahm rule”. Former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm invented a measure that examines how fast the unemployment rate…