…the word money very carefully, as defined here. Starting with the big picture:  You can compare the magnitude of these asset-creation mechanisms here. (Hint: cap gains rule.) The key concept: “money” here…

…the unemployment rate by several months, for purposes of forecasting the effect on the “Sahm rule” measure of the unemployment rate, the first two weeks of January have averaged a…

…for over a month. Finally, here’s the update on the monthly average of initial claims leading the unemployment rate, and thus also leading the Sahm rule for recessions: The unemployment…

…This was in regard to semiconductors mostly. It was not due to increased costs as much as increased demand. A rule of conduct or maxim claims if I order more…

…strongly indicate no recession in the next few months. Because jobless claims can be used to forecast the “Sahm rule” for recessions, let’s update that as well. With last month’s…

…months: . Now let’s update the forecast of the Sahm rule. With last month’s 2 year high in the unemployment rate, I’ve been wondering whether, because unemployment includes both new…

…we’ll get the “official” monthly update to the Sahm rule. Since initial (and continuing) claims both lead the unemployment rate, here’s that updated forecast. On a monthly basis, initial claims…

…again when the SEC created Rule 10c-18 that allowed corporations to put profits back into their own stocks. One graph featured in the book shows that in 1981, only 2…

…at almost any time ever before the pandemic. Finally, let’s update the Sahm rule implications with the first two weeks of April under our belt. Remember that both initial and…

…States oral argument reminded me of how little the Roberts Court has actually cared about rule of law values and legal transparency during its 18-year run. Leaving aside the overturning…