…before the unemployment rate: temporary employment and residential construction. Here’s what residential construction looks like historically: And here is its recent performance: Now, here is temporary employment: Temporary employment did…

…0.8%. The employment cost index for wages, however, decreased -1.2%. Normally this would be of some concern, because the employment cost index is designed to measured changes in wages for…

…got a chance to look at upstream pressures on inflation. And those upstream pressures do seem to be building slightly, reflecting a strong economy with full employment. Commodity prices increased…

…growth. Unemployment fell to 3.6% in 2022 and held steady in 2023 as both the labor force and employment grew. The share of the population ages 25-54 with a job…

…mean that the surge is plateauing. Finally, let me tie this into the discussion of leading employment metrics from the Establishment jobs survey I wrote about on Wednesday. Recall that…

…of nonlinear downside risk. The unemployment rate has gone up in a manner that is–within an arguable rounding error–empirically consistent with recessionary dynamics. More worryingly, the unemployment rate is also accelerating…

…the news wasn’t nearly as bad as the headline employment number. Let’s start with the negative stuff. The simple story is, manufacturing is in a funk. Employment in manufacturing declined…

…The unemployment rate, employment population ratio, and the labor force participation rate also all improved. The only relatively weak spots were the slight downturns in manufacturing and manufacturing hours, as…

…Auto industry employment saw gains in auto dealership and maintenance activities from February 2024 to February 2025 12-month change (net and percent) in employment, not seasonally adjusted, February 2024 –…

…employment (gray): With the exception of one month in 1995, any time both housing units under construction have been joined by residential construction employment as YoY negative, a recession has…