…declined -0.2%. As I have written many times over the past 15 years, although the relationship is somewhat noisy, consumption leads employment. Here is the historical graph of the 25+…

…a 2+ year high, but for one month (February). Both the employment population ratio and the labor force participation rate declined further. In fact, in this report employment has only…

…few months. Finally, per the above paradigm, here is the update on real retail sales vs. employment. Because the distortion in shelter prices has had so much effect on consumer…

…Now let’s turn to the Household survey side, which was horrible – in other words, once again it was recessionary. Unemployment and Underemployment The headline was that the unemployment rate…

…suspect the turn in employment will take place within the next few months.  And needless to say, if construction including construction employment turn down at the same time as manufacturing,…

 – by New Deal democrat Let’s take a belated look at some of the more important datapoints that came out of last Friday’s employment report for April. To start with, as…

…only reason the unemployment and underemployment rates did not go up was that the labor force participation declined significantly. The employment/population ratio also declined. Further out on the spectrum, those…

…the payroll employment numbers are benchmarked against unemployment insurance tax records, which represent about 97% of total employment. It might be tempting to think that this preliminary downward revision means…

…more childcare. But today, prime-age women’s employment rate has surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Prime-age men’s employment continues to lag, despite a “huge number of job openings” through 2021 and 2022 (Furman)….

…being clobbered by inflation in March, the picture for employment was considerably weaker. While the “less bad” trend in manufacturing employment continued, with a slightly contractionary 48.7, still its second…