On the topic of Coronavirus and the travel ban, Trump’s travel ban sidesteps his own European resorts. The President’s newly implemented European travel restrictions to the US conveniently sidestep a ban on nations where three Trump-owned golf resorts are located. No politics there, just plain greed. Trump has been under fire for visiting his properties […]
This is what exponential growth looks like I’ve placed an added emphasis on high frequency indicators, as they will be the first to show the impact of coronavirus on the economy. This morning chain store sales for last week were reported. They were: – Redbook +6.0% YoY – Retail Economist unchanged w/w, +0.9% YoY Needless […]
This is coming from MEDPAGE TODAY, “Track the U.S. COVID-19 Outbreak in Real Time,” Comments Section (3 comments), March 11, 2020 with regard to COVID-19 The mechanism of seasonal effect for seasonal respiratory virus spread is believed to be humidity, not temperature. In New York state, which has 220 cases, fomites lose moisture where indoor […]
As of the market close on 11 March 2020 the S&P 500 PE had fallen to 18.2. This makes the market cheap in my valuation model as it has fallen below my fair value band. Moreover, with interest rates still falling to new record lows the fair value band is also rising. In the chart […]
This is not a prediction. Only an observation. From 1952 to 1996, U.S. nominal net worth of households and non-profits tracked nominal GDP pretty closely. Net worth remained pretty close to 15 times GDP. That consistent relationship ended after 1997. In the third quarter of 2007, net worth was nearly 20 times GDP but by […]
Whatever will I write about on a no-data Monday? I won- WTF????? Yesterday I was wondering what I might write about today, as there is absolutely *no* data being released. And then I woke up and turned on the intertoobs . . . . OK. Deep breaths. For those of you who wonder what the […]
The BSing of the Red Death: and a K.I.S.S. model for the coronavirus pandemic A Reuters/Ipsos poll this past week found that only 2 in 10 Republicans, vs. 4 in 10 Democrats, say the coronavirus poses an imminent threat to the United States. In keeping with that lack of concern, fewer republicans are taking any steps to prepare, […]
My brother lives in Lucca, Italy ( near Florence) and sent the following report. We’re not quite at the “Bring Our Your Dead” stage. Schools & museums are closed, flights are being canceled, but all in all life in Lucca is quiet & normal. Many shops are closed for their usual breaks this time of […]