Steve Hutkins on-line live blogging at Save the Post Office has been updating the progress of the “Lawsuits against DeJoy, USPS & Trump with relation to mail delays and election mail. This is the sweep ordered by the court for the USPS to perform to discover and report via the “sweep of facilities” how many […]
Slow pace of improvement in jobless claims continues This week’s new jobless claims were essentially unchanged (but at their pandemic low), while continued claims continued their decline, also to a new pandemic low. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by only 543 to 738,166, just above October 3’s revised pandemic low of […]
Warning! First person ahead. I don’t usually talk about myself, don’t even like to talk about people, but this a story that I want to tell and don’t know how to otherwise do so. So, your forbearance, please. Those of you who have been around as long as I, have probably witnessed personnel changes that […]
The Morning After Last night was truly a dark night of the soul. The rule of law in an American Republic simply will not withstand the re-election of jobless claims together with a continuing GOP majority in the Senate. Not to mention the prospect of continuing to shelter in place for perhaps years as the […]
Biden Narrowly Leads In Prairie Du Chien, Wisconsin Several months ago I forecast that “He who wins Prairie du Chien wins the White House.” I also argued more generally that SW Wisconsin would determine Wisconsin. As of right now Trump is leading by about 2% in Wisconsin, and he seems to be ahead in most […]
Two Questions about the Election I am about to turn in and let the vote-counting continue without me. It will be a troubled sleep since the election was mostly a disaster. (Universal preschool won in Oregon, and if everywhere were like here I would be happier.) Meanwhile two questions: 1. What went wrong with the […]
I promised myself not to forecast. I promised you that I would call Pennsylvania when I could. I get Trump ahead by about 700,000 and 2,000,000 absentee ballots to be counted. Assuming independents split (generous to Trump) Dem-Rep on absentees is about 50% so … I call Pennsylvania for Biden. (I may delete this post […]
September housing construction and October manufacturing both on a tear It’s the first of the month, so we get the last laggard for September (construction spending) and the first read on October (ISM manufacturing). Both were very positive in their important components. While total construction spending was only up 0.3% from a downwardly revised August, […]
The final 2020 Presidential Electoral College forecast: Biden 350, Trump 181, 7 toss-ups Here is my final nowcast for the Presidential 2020 election, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, since that directly reflects what is likely to happen in the Electoral College. For this final installment, I am also […]