Last night was truly a dark night of the soul. The rule of law in an American Republic simply will not withstand the re-election of jobless claims together with a continuing GOP majority in the Senate. Not to mention the prospect of continuing to shelter in place for perhaps years as the COVID pandemic is allowed to run free.
As of this morning, absentee and mail-in ballots are still being counted in many swing States. As a result, as of when I type this, Biden has carried Arizona, assumed a slight lead in Wisconsin, maintains a slight lead in Nevada, is only ~13,500 away from taking the lead in Michigan with about 10% of ballots still to be counted, and the NYT says that Georgia is back in play and slightly leading towards Biden. And for what it’s worth, once California counts all its ballots, Biden is likely to have won something like 52.5% of the popular vote.
In other words, as of right now, the most likely outcome is somewhere between the two below possibilities:
If Biden were to take all of those, plus PA, which may not finish counting ballots until Friday, and NC (which still has not counted some ballots), here’s what the Electoral Map will look like:
If he simply maintains his leads, and takes the lead in Michigan, here is what the Electoral Map will look like:
Note that even in a more pessimistic second map, Biden will wins a majority of 274 Electoral votes.
Put another way, basically, the Presidential map looks very much like my final forecast map with the 3% error band, where we give Trump all of the toss-ups, but Biden still wins:
Still, the fact remains that under the above scenarios there appears to have been roughly a 3%-4% “hidden” Trump vote. That also was apparent in the Senate races, where the two Democrats with under 4% leads – Gideon in Maine and Cunningham in NC – lost. As of now, the Democrats have 48 seats, and the GOP 50. If Perdue continues to lead in Georgia, the GOP will retain its majority, although it is possible the Democrats could pick up the other Georgia seat in a runoff election (but don’t bet on it). Also, it appears that the Democrats also lost some Congressional seats, although they will most likely maintain their majority.
A President Biden with a GOP Senate is going to be foreclosed from filling any judicial vacancies, and may not even be allowed to fill cabinet positions. Needless to say, budget hardball would continue. In short, he will be completely hamstrung in his first two years.
The bottom line: nearly 50% of your fellow Americans are perfectly happy with the idea of turning this country into a full-on herrenvolk banana republic.
Here is what I posted regarding my state: RI. My town voted Trump. The state name change was to remove “and Providence Plantation”. We are now just Rhode Island.
Just some fun FYI. All from the RI .gov election results.
https://www.ri.gov/election/results/2020/general_election/
So in RI, 12 towns went for Trump in an average 54.8 to 43.2 % vote average. Top 5 Trump towns in order: Foster, Scituate, Glocester, Burriville and W. Greenwich.
The remaining are: Coventry, Exeter, Hopkinton, Johnston, Richmond, Smithfield.
Smiithfield was the least for Trump 50 to 48.1%
All voted not to change the state name in a 60.1 to 39.8% vote average. To 5 to reject the name change in order: Foster, Glocester, Burriville, W. Greenwich, Coventry.
You gotta change the maps in this post. Idaho for Biden? That is where the militias that cross state lines to take over Federal facilities with zero ramifications come from. Isn’t the Idaho state motto “law n’ order for thee, anything goes for me”?
Georgia looking difficult at latest count – but it could end up a dead heat.
reason:
You should look now.
Trump has already set up the 2021 game board for Kobayashi Maru. The only question is whose play will it be? If we are very lucky then Trump will somehow steal the election, thereby condemning himself to that fate which he had already sealed.
This was the FU election where each half the country says FU to the other.
No, this is the election where 1/2 of the nation has decided they have had enough hearing FU from the other 1/2.
“If I thought voters were racists who want basic economic security and the other party was offering them racism but not economic security, I would simply try offering economic security but not racism rather than offering them neither.” – Ed Burmilla
Biden on verge of victory as he leads in Pa., Nev., Ga.
USA TODAY
Poor Joe. I wonder how much more damage that Trump can do in the next 75 days?
The good news about the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine is that it can be safely distributed to immunize all US citizens living either on Mars or the dark side of the moon. So, Trump’s Space Force is finally starting to make real sense :<)