I am about to turn in and let the vote-counting continue without me. It will be a troubled sleep since the election was mostly a disaster. (Universal preschool won in Oregon, and if everywhere were like here I would be happier.)
Meanwhile two questions:
1. What went wrong with the polls? They didn’t do too badly in 2016; the popular vote was close to the consensus prediction, and the electoral college was a squeaker within the margin of error. This time though the polls were apparently way off. Yes, the votes are not all in, but it doesn’t look like we’ll see the massive popular victory for Biden they foretold. In fact, as I fade away tonight, it’s still possible that Trump could pull out a legitimate electoral college victory, something that seemed almost impossible a day or two ago. Take Wisconsin (my home state) for instance. We saw numbers ranging from 5-13% for Democrats, and now it’s nip and tuck. Meanwhile, analysts were giving the Dems a better than even chance of taking the Senate, but that looks out of reach now. So what gives? Supposedly the weights were adjusted to better reflect the role of education, and the “shy Trumpster” effect was taken into consideration. But here we are.
2. And how do we understand the politics? We’re dealing with a president whose failures were about as massive as could be, especially in the context of a pandemic. He made a fool of himself in the first debate. He is mired in corruption. And the Republican senate has repeatedly blocked measures to support workers, small business,es and local governments devastated by the economic effects of the virus. If this isn’t enough to expunge them from office, what is?
I hope the news is better when I wake up.
Remember Talleyrand advice to young diplomats: “Surtout, pas trop de zele” – Above all, not too much zeal
In their desire to influence electorate, pollsters quickly lose contact with the reality (oversampling, etc). All those fables “Biden leads Trump by at least 5-7%” were actually thinly disguised propaganda designed to influence electorate (I am not saying that Biden lost; its currently undecided, but this is nail-biting at best, not a landslide)
Also you need to answer a very simple question: who will answer the phone those days when such poll is conducted. Massing error is built-in only due to this factor (probably +-20%)
This is all true and I am firmly in “anybody but Trump” camp, but let’s do not forget who Biden is: a corrupt to the core neoliberal politician; warmonger who never saw the war, he did not like (and by voting for Iraq war he can be considered to be a war criminal, if we apply Nuremberg standards to US politicians) .
Like Stalin aptly put it in different circumstances: both are worse. https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/7633083-there-are-two-famous-quips-of-stalin-which-are-both
It is also undeniable that Biden has problems with health, and probably should not run int he first place and let Sanders run instead. But DNC decided differently, pushing Sanders and Tulsi under the train, and now is paying the price (if they really care).
Biden dementia worries are probably exaggerated by media, but some level of mental decline is obvious:
Like in 2016, the key question of the 2020 elections is the question of the legitimacy of neoliberal elite and classic neoliberalism as governing the USA elite ideology.
Many people, especially among the working class and lower-middle-class (including white color lower middle class), answer this question negatively now.
Also, with their “Russia, Russia, Russia”, scam neoliberal Dems further destroyed their own credibility among those who can think, and to this slice of the electorate they now look like fraudulent and desperate losers. Despicable warmongers.
What is good in the fact that the neoliberal Dems became the second war party, happily married to the intelligence agencies brass. That’s simply disgusting.
It is not about Biden, wasn’t Hilary’s fault; in fact, she’s owed an apology. It is about nearly one-half of Americans being ignorant, self centered, misogynistic, racist, who Trump has given license to be themselves. They couldn’t bear the thought of Kamala, of blacks being made equal. If you haven’t, watch The Chicago 7 Trial; note the parallels. Then, we were clueless. Hayden, Rubin, Hoffman, Seale, … were so far ahead of the rest of us. Trump took us back to 1968. We still don’t know what is going on. This can’t go on.
‘Tis true that the media and the pollsters, our only sources, blew it big time. The media simply is not up to the task. Not smart enough for the job, too constrained by ratings, went gaga over equivalency, … thinks the news is something someone phones in, wouldn’t know a news story if it bit them. The pollsters? Clueless. Could have done better hanging around a barn.
Biden wins, it could have been worse. The real losers? Other everyone, blacks lost big, women lost big. The world is a little better off. But Mitch will do as much damage as he can.
‘Twas delusional to think that Bernie could have won more than 4 states. Look at the electoral map and see where the country is. Even Biden and Harris are too liberal for America. The problem is those more than 70 million who voted for Trump.
after 4 years, there’s no one in America who doesn’t know what Trump represents…yet nearly half the voters chose him…what else do you need to know?
With the exception of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama back to 1990, the elections have been squeaker here and in Wisconsin. Only 2016 was a Repub pres. elected. However the states are growing more on the Dem side.
Dems pick lackluster candidates.
People are willing to vote against better outcomes for themselves in order to deny others.
Exit polling consists of a long line of liars
Two things are what are wrong with the polls.
First, those people who will agree to answer questions from a stranger. Who does that? Would you do that? I would never even pick up the phone from a number I do not know.
Second, people lie. Not a whole lot of people like to admit to a stranger that yes, yes I am a racist.
Incurable problems. And they should be totally ignored.
“who will agree to answer questions from a stranger”
The thing is, the results show that Trump voters are less likely to answer questions from strangers then Biden voters. Or that Trump voters are more likely to lie to pollsters.
I observe that I think that this systematic issue in polling highlights a problem for Biden’s desire to be a president for all Americans. How do you govern people who do not want to communicate with you?
Ignoring the problems with polling means multi billion dollar ad campaigns have no way of finding their targets. If it makes them go away I’m fine with it.
Apologies for posting this twice but I realized later it probably belongs in this thread.
“If I thought voters were racists who want basic economic security and the other party was offering them racism but not economic security, I would simply try offering economic security but not racism rather than offering them neither.” – Ed Burmilla
Check the map
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president?iid=politics_election_national_map
Ken:
The map looks better this morning. It appears the lackluster Biden is going to win. 🙂