Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Jobless claims highest in three months – but seasonality still playing a huge role

Jobless claims highest in three months – but seasonality still playing a huge role On a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 231,335 to 1,151,015. Seasonally adjusted claims also rose by 181,000 to 965,000. The 4 week moving average rose by 18,250 to 834,250. Here is the close up since the end of July […]

Scenes from the December jobs report

Scenes from the December jobs report Friday’s December jobs report saw the first decline in employment since the lockdowns of March and April. Let’s take a closer look.As I pointed out Friday, the losses were concentrated in the food and dining (restaurant) and amusement and recreation sectors, both of which are shown below normalized to […]

Covid related deaths to accelerate according to CDC

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has a dire warning about what is to come for the COVID-19 pandemic, according to its latest ensemble projections. An “ensemble” forecast combines each of the independently developed forecasts (state and federal) into one aggregate forecast to improve prediction over the next 4 weeks. The top row of the figure […]

FDI and the Pandemic

by Joseph Joyce FDI and the Pandemic The fluctuations in portfolio capital flows to emerging markets over the past year have been well documented. But foreign direct investment (FDI) has also plunged in those countries as well as in the advanced economies. Moreover, FDI faces more long-term challenges than other forms of capital flows. In October the Organization […]

Programming note

by New Deal democrat Programming note   Four year ago I wrote a valedictory piece about the Obama Administration, and separately wrote of my fears of what the Trump Administration would wreak. Needless to say, especially in light of events of the past week, I intend to do the same retrospective as to Trump and […]

November JOLTS report shows the renewed impact of the pandemic, partial lockdowns

November JOLTS report shows the renewed impact of the pandemic, partial lockdowns This morning’s JOLTS report for November (remember – a month in which there were total job gains) showed a jobs market recovery that at least paused due to the increasing effects of the out of control pandemic. Hires were up (good), while quits […]

Liars and Their Lies

Poor Jim Jordan, singled up with no Doug Collins, Trey Gowdy, Darrell Issa, Louis Gohmert, Mo Brooks, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, …, along side him, on 12 and 13 Jan, 2021, tried valiantly, well, at least loudly and indignantly, to pull the Republican wagon out of the ditch; the ditch that they all had taken […]