The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has a dire warning about what is to come for the COVID-19 pandemic, according to its latest ensemble projections.
An “ensemble” forecast combines each of the independently developed forecasts (state and federal) into one aggregate forecast to improve prediction over the next 4 weeks.
- The top row of the figure shows the number of new COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States each week from November 7 through January 9 and forecasted new deaths over the next 4 weeks, through February 6.
- The bottom row of the figure shows the number of total COVID-19 deaths in the United States each week from November 7 through January 9 and the forecasted number of total COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks, through February 6.
- Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior.
The agency believes that as many as 92,000 Americans will die from COVID-19 in the next three weeks despite the rollout of the vaccine. This represents a 25% increase in total COVID-related deaths, which have now topped over 384,000, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
The CDC’s forecast also suggests that total COVID deaths will reach up to 477,000 by Feb. 6.